I would like to begin by thanking our moderator, Professor Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, former Minister of State for Petroleum and head of Nigeria’s delegation to OPEC. We are grateful for his contributions to our Organization, especially when he was President of the Conference in 2015.  

The theme of this panel discussion is ‘Navigating the new energy world order: Security, Transition and Finance.’ There are a multitude of ways in which we could tackle these important topics, but I would like to cast our minds back a few months ago to COP28, held in another OPEC Member Country, the UAE.

The Emirati Presidency should be commended for their inclusive approach, ensuring all voices were heard, including the oil industry’s, and the testimony to this was the quality of the outcome, as reflected in the text of the ‘First Global Stocktake’, which was historic on many levels.

However, in the buildup to the COP there were several prominent figures demanding that the oil industry be excluded from the process. This is part of a mistaken narrative around climate change and the future of the industry. It is one detached from reality.

This discord stems from the fact that there is no one universally accepted definition of ‘energy transition.’ The concept differs depending on perspective. How an energy transition is imagined in Western Europe is different to how it is will be experienced here, in Africa.

Energy transitions are different for the 675 million people worldwide who lack access to electricity, four out of five of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa. They are very different for the 2.3 billion people without clean fuels and technologies for cooking.

In recognition of these realities, the original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Treaty from 1992, which was ratified by all 197 participating countries, enshrined the principle that:

“The global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions.”

This principle was further reiterated in the ‘Global Stocktake’ from COP28, which calls on parties to

“To contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement

and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches.”

Furthermore, it calls for “just, orderly and equitable” energy transitions.

With a challenge as complex as climate change, “one-size-fits-all” prescriptions will never work. A broad range of mitigation measures and multiple pathways are necessary to address it.

Despite this, there are erroneous attempts to frame energy transitions as a single pathway with one single formula, namely, halting oil and gas.

Such thinking is a form of denialism – it denies reality.

It denies the fact that petroleum and products derived from it are essential for daily life across the world.

It denies the fact that disruption or instability in the global oil market has harmful consequences, affecting the most vulnerable members of society.

It denies the reality that for many oil-producing developing nations, oil production is a way to generate revenue streams that help address other pressing and legitimate needs, such as development, reducing poverty and paying for public services.

What was heartening before and after COP28 was the African leaders who articulated this clearly in their pronouncements. For example, Nigeria’s Honourable Minister of State for Environment, HE Dr Ishaq Salako said,

“Asking Nigeria, or indeed, asking Africa, to phase out fossil fuels is like asking us to stop breathing without life support. It is not acceptable and it is not possible.”

Additionally, Uganda's Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, HE Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu said on the margins of the COP,

“Countries like Uganda... must be allowed to develop her natural resources in order to get money to transit from darkness to light.”

As HE Tom Alweendo, Namibia’s Minister of Mines and Energy, has recently written,

“The economic and social benefits derived from fossil fuels are still crucial for [African nations] – from reducing energy poverty to bolstering our economies. Moreover, we believe that these benefits can be harnessed in tandem with addressing climate change concerns.”

Addressing climate change is not a binary choice about selecting one energy source over another. It requires the inclusive ‘à la carte’ range of options which can be seen in COP28’s ‘Global Stocktake’ text.

For example, technological innovation is a key focus for OPEC. It is why our Member Countries are investing heavily in hydrogen projects, CCUS, CCS and DAC facilities, and the circular carbon economy.

We need an all-peoples, all-technologies and all-energies approach. This is necessary due to demographic and macroeconomic trajectories for the decades ahead.

According to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO), by 2045, the global population is expected to expand to about 9.5 billion and the global economy almost double. As a result of these changes, global primary energy demand is set to increase by 23% to 2045.

All forms of energy will be necessary to meet these demand needs. OPEC recognizes there will be an increased role for renewables. Hence, our Member Countries are investing heavily in them.

However, oil will retain the largest share in the energy mix and global oil demand is set to reach 116 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2045. Africa, as a region set to develop and grow economically, is forecast to experience demand growth of 3.8 mb/d.

To meet these future needs and take into account the industry’s natural decline rates, investment requirements for the overall oil sector between 2022 and 2045 are estimated at a cumulative $14 trillion. If these investments do not materialize, it represents a considerable challenge and risk to market stability and energy security.

This underscores the fact that energy security and the need to reduce emissions must go hand-in-hand. Recent OPEC Secretariat research showed that in five years there would be an oil market deficit of 16 million barrels per day between forecasted rising global demand and supply if investments into upstream activities were stopped today — as some are calling for.

OPEC recognizes that oil market stability is a prerequisite for an investment enabling environment. This has been one of the primary motives of our market stabilization efforts together with 10 oil producing countries under the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’. We are committed in 2024 to continue on the path we have set for ourselves, responding to market conditions and taking action as appropriate.

In doing so, we will count on Nigeria’s continued engagement to meet the challenges of tomorrow.

Hopefully, the points outlined have offered ‘food-for-thought’ for our discussions. In conclusion, if I may, I would like to pose some questions to the distinguished panel,

How do we ensure that the energy transition is “just, orderly and equitable,” especially from an African perspective, given that the continent contributes just 3.8% of global carbon emissions?

How do we strike the right balance between energy security, affordability and reducing emissions?

So without further ado, I would like to conclude my remarks and join the panel discussion.