Ladies and gentlemen,

Good afternoon and thank you to everyone joining us in person and via live stream for the launch of the World Oil Outlook 2026.

The launch of OPEC’s flagship annual publication is always a special day on our calendar of events, but it is particularly significant this year as we celebrate the twentieth edition of the Outlook.

Over two decades, the Outlook has become a key part of OPEC’s voice on evolving energy futures. It offers data-driven, transparent and objective views that aid policymakers worldwide.

Acknowledging long-term energy trends is essential, as energy systems require decades of planning, investment and coordination.

Published since 2007, it is interesting to note that the Reference Case in our very first Outlook anticipated that global oil demand in 2025 would reach around 110 million barrels per day (mb/d).

While actual demand that year was slightly over 105 mb/d, up by over 27 mb/d from 2005 levels, the central message of our first Outlook proved to be entirely correct: global oil demand grew very strongly, even through a period shaped by a global financial crisis and a pandemic.

Just as our team in 2007 expected strong oil demand growth out to 2025, our team in 2026 expects further robust growth out to 2050.

In this regard, it is perhaps fitting that a central message of this year’s Outlook is that prudent energy policymaking necessitates remaining focused on the key long-term trends and the underlying drivers shaping our energy futures.

Day-to-day developments are important, yes, but recent history reminds us not to underestimate the resilience of these underlying drivers. 

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many feared lasting disruption to both the global economy and oil markets. Instead, both recovered strongly, demonstrating the resilience of our economies, the strength of our industry and the growing demand for its products.

This lesson is particularly relevant today, amid what has been a volatile year for global energy markets.

Against this backdrop, this year’s Outlook provides a comprehensive medium- and long-term snapshot of the global energy landscape through to 2050. In doing so, our team has worked hard to capture the opportunities, whilst being fully aware of the challenges and uncertainties related to our energy futures.

The result is an Outlook spanning almost 300 pages of data and analysis, covering topics ranging from energy demand, supply and downstream to energy scenarios and a dedicated section on Africa.

While my colleagues will provide further details in due course, I would like to briefly mention five high-level takeaways from the twentieth Outlook.

First, many governments around the world continue to re-evaluate their energy policies. This reflects policymakers’ efforts to strike a balance between delivering energy security, ensuring energy availability, reducing emissions and fostering sustainable development.

Globally, there is a renewed appreciation that hydrocarbons like oil and its associated petroleum products remain vital for both the global economy and daily life.

Second, global primary energy demand will continue to expand. From now until 2050, our Outlook sees it increasing by 23%, with this growth coming almost entirely from developing countries.

Of note, by 2050 we expect oil to retain the largest share in the energy mix at around 30%. We also see global demand reaching just above 124 mb/d by 2050, and – let me say it again – there is no peak oil demand on the horizon.

Third, the scale of humanity’s current and future energy consumption means that this year’s Outlook retains OPEC’s long-held view that all energy sources will be required to meet the world’s energy needs.

This is clearly reflected in the Outlook’s long-term trends. These show growth across every energy source apart from coal.

Fourth, the Outlook underscores the importance of continued efforts to reduce emissions. This includes technologies such as carbon capture, utilization and storage, direct air capture, as well as frameworks such as the circular carbon economy. Many OPEC Member Countries are making significant investments in these technologies, as well as renewables, to support these efforts.

Fifth, major investments in all energies and all technologies are vital. For oil alone, investments of $17.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050 – or over $700 billion per annum – are needed to meet demand in the long term.

What these five points collectively underline is that the scale of humanity’s energy needs requires sustained investment today across all energies and technologies. This is vital to meet growing demand, enhance energy security, improve affordability and reduce emissions. Delivering on all counts also requires long-term policy certainty.

Before closing, I would like to extend my sincere thanks to everyone involved in bringing this valuable publication to life.

The twentieth OPEC World Oil Outlook is the result of an extraordinary collective effort. It draws on the knowledge, dedication and close collaboration of colleagues from across the Organization, whose commitment to excellence continues to strengthen our research every year.

Today’s Outlook is launched with the same objective that guided our very first – to contribute to a better understanding of the evolving global energy landscape, and to support informed decision-making, energy security and market stability in the years ahead.

With that, I would like to pass the floor to the Director of OPEC’s Research Division, Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, who will deliver a presentation.

Thank you.