Ladies and gentlemen,

Good morning.

It is always a pleasure to be back in London, a city that I called home for a number of years when working for the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.

I would like to thank my good friend, Dr Amrita Sen, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, for the invitation to deliver this keynote address and the earlier introduction.

I last saw Amrita at the 9th OPEC International Seminar that took place in Vienna in early July. I would like to take this opportunity to thank Amrita for speaking at the event and for Energy Aspects being a sponsor.

It was truly a seminar for the ages, bringing together 23 ministers and government officials, 35 leaders from national and international companies and institutions and 12 heads of international organizations. In total, the Organization welcomed over 1,000 participants.

The Seminar’s success was reflected in its overall theme, ‘Charting pathways together: the future of global energy.’ The concept speaks to OPEC’s past, present and future, and of course, the importance of cooperation, and of working together to help deliver future energy pathways that are realistic for all.

Allow me to use this important platform to underscore five key insights from this Seminar. All of which I believe are vital for understanding the future of global energy from the perspective of the diversity of situations and needs of populations around the world.

First, as can be viewed in OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2025, global energy demand is set to rise by a huge 23% to 2050. This is driven by a variety of factors.

The world’s population is set to increase to around 10 billion by 2050, and at the same urbanization is set accelerate, with around 1.9 billion people moving to cities over the next 25 years.

To put this urbanization drive in some context, this is the equivalent of adding 210 cities the size of London to the global landscape.

The global economy is expected to almost double in size by 2050, with all the corresponding energy demand growth this entails.

In fact, emerging technologies in the global economic landscape, such as Artificial Intelligence, are leading to the need for massive data centres and considerable energy demand expansion. It is worth noting that global electricity demand since the start of the century has more than doubled.

It is also easy for all of us in this room to take energy for granted. Think of how we all travelled here and the hundreds of petroleum products that we passed along the way, and the many more we see in this room.

For billions, however, energy access remains a critical challenge, especially in the developing world, where over 660 million people still lack basic forms of energy and 2.1 billion lack clean cooking fuels.

Everyone deserves to live in a world where they have access to energy, and attending to this moral and ethical issue for humanity will require considerable energy additions.

Second, this energy demand growth can only be met by utilizing all energies and all technologies. Here, we need to understand just what each energy can offer in terms of energy security, affordability and reducing emissions, and appreciate that these factors are all intertwined.

In recent years, we have witnessed a marked shift in how the future of energy is being discussed. Policymakers in both the developing and developed worlds are once again recognizing that oil and gas are vital for future energy pathways.

In our World Oil Outlook, we see demand for all energies increasing, except for coal. Currently, oil is the main energy source for the global economy, but it is also expected to retain the largest share of the global energy mix in 2050 at around 30% – when demand is set to exceed 123 million barrels a day.

It is important to stress that we see wind and solar expanding at a growth rate of over 6% per year in the period. This is the fastest growth rate for all energies, but given the low starting base, wind and solar combined only reach a level of 13.5% of the global energy mix by 2050.

Let me highlight here that OPEC Member Countries are investing heavily in renewables, alongside investments being made in hydrocarbons. We believe this type of balanced approach is vital.

Renewables are not a panacea. This can be viewed in the challenges of intermittency, low-density and the large seasonal imbalances due to periods of low wind and solar generation. No economy can rely solely upon them.

They also require petroleum-powered vehicles and petroleum-derived products in their manufacture, construction and decommissioning.

It is important to view renewables at the global level from the perspective of a Total Levelized Cost of Energy, which includes the additional costs associated with fully integrating intermittent and decentralized sources like wind and solar. When full system-wide costs are factored in, the price of renewables rises considerably.

Moreover, renewables are not the sole option to reduce emissions.

We also need to recognize the importance of such technologies as carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) and direct air capture (DAC), as well as the promotion of the circular carbon economy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change views CCUS and DAC as having key roles to play in mitigating climate change moving forward.

Third, the global energy sector stands at a critical juncture, requiring significant investment in all energies and technologies. It is an issue that I have highlighted on many occasions since I became OPEC Secretary General.

 For the oil industry to reliably supply markets and offset natural decline in mature fields, global cumulative investments of $18.2 trillion are required in the period to 2050. That is nearly $700 billion per year.

For those that believe that the world does not need new investment in oil and gas projects, I have a three-word response: ‘You are wrong’.

We have been consistently saying this for many years. We are happy to hear the tone on investments shifting more positively in recent times.

The potential implications of a shortfall are grave, as underscored in recent OPEC research. We see a huge market deficit of 23 million barrels a day by 2030 if investment in the global upstream industry stopped today.

Fourth, and related to the investment issue, developing countries must be empowered to use their natural resources – including to address energy poverty – and be supported by adequate finance and technology.

This was a point highlighted by many of our African Member Countries at the OPEC Seminar. Just as countries in the developed world have leveraged their hydrocarbon assets to develop their economics and provide for their citizens, so developing countries should be allowed to follow the same path in the future too.

Global climate and energy challenges must be addressed fairly, especially as Africa has contributed only around 3% to global annual greenhouse gas emissions, the smallest share of any continent. To put this in some context, the G7 is at over 43%.

Future energy systems must be just, equitable, and reflect national circumstances.

Fifth, governments, policymakers and industry leaders must take a realistic, data-driven view of energy realities and embrace inclusive pathways that follow an all-energies, all-technologies and all-peoples approach.

All inclusive, credible, forward-looking approaches are the only way we can meet the energy and climate challenges before us.

We welcome the realism and pragmatism that has evolved more recently in energy discussions. Away from ideology; away from wishful thinking.

Ladies and gentlemen

The all-inclusive approaches are a core focus for OPEC and its Member Countries, and we also recognize the value of stable and balanced markets to allow the world to deliver energy futures.

I know that many of you in the audience today will be traders, financial market participants, analysts, all of whom certainly follow developments of OPEC and OPEC+ affairs on a regular basis.

I would like to stress that we are fully open and transparent, we continue to monitor supply and demand fundamentals daily, and recognize how important short-term stability is for the long-term future of this vital global industry.

This has all been central to our DNA since the Organization was founded just over 65 years ago, and it has been evident in the proactive and pre-emptive decisions taken by participants in OPEC+ in 2025.

We recognize that our future is built on an understanding of both the past and present. Of taking informed decisions to help enable the huge investments required in the decades to come for an industry that is so pivotal to our daily lives.

By 2050, it will be the lives of almost 10 billion people, all of whom need today’s policymakers to embrace the realities we see before us.

I would like to conclude by saying that just two weeks ago at OPEC we celebrated our 65th Anniversary.

For 65 years, OPEC has delivered on oil and energy market stability and we will keep delivering oil to consumers for many more decades and beyond.

Thank you.