Ladies and gentlemen,

Good morning.

It is always a pleasure to be back in London, a city that I called home for a number of years when working for the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.

It is also a great pleasure to accept the invitation from my good friend, Adrian Binks, the Chairman and CEO of Argus Media, to deliver this keynote address at today’s conference.

The last time I attended this event was at least ten years ago in Geneva.

I know that many of you in the audience today will be traders, financial market participants, analysts, all of whom certainly follow developments of OPEC and OPEC+ affairs on a regular basis.

I am sure many of you will want to ask about the upcoming OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting later this month, so I thought I would bring it up first.

I would like to start by saying that we are fully open and transparent, and recognize how important short-term stability is for the long-term future of this vital global industry.

All I can say for now is that we continue to monitor supply and demand fundamentals on a daily basis and ministers will review all of this when they meet in Vienna at the end of this month.

In this respect, I would like to highlight that OPEC has a long history of supporting market stability, with the past few years being particularly extraordinary when looking back to the period since early 2020.

We all recall that in April of that year, OPEC and their non-OPEC partners came together to deliver unprecedented production adjustments aimed at rescuing the global oil market from the impacts of the pandemic.

The pivotal decisions taken eventually helped restore balance and a more sustainable stability to the market, and what we continue to do today remains fully focused on these key objectives.

Throughout 2023, OPEC+ has taken a proactive and pre-emptive approach to achieve and sustain a stable oil market, and to provide long-term guidance for the market.

This has been through the production adjustments under the umbrella of the Declaration of Cooperation, and through further voluntary adjustments from certain countries, most notably Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary adjustment of 1 million barrels a day and Russia’s 300,000 barrels a day from exports, now in place until the end of this year.

The actions of OPEC and OPEC+ today, are a platform to help enable the huge investments required in the decades to come for an industry that is so pivotal to our daily lives.

We take for granted widely available products like gasoline, diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, and a variety of end-use items.

People sometimes forget things like toothpaste, deodorant, soap, cameras, computers, car tyres, contact lenses, artificial limbs, antibiotics and many types of medicine are also derived from petroleum.

The world needs more crude oil and the products derived from it for energy and economic security, not less.

At the same time, as an industry we recognize the importance of continually advancing operational efficiencies and reducing emissions.

This past year or so has seen a significant shift from policymakers in recognizing this intertwined narrative.

Governments everywhere are reevaluating their sustainable energy pathways, taking into account the realities on the ground and the views of their citizens.

There has been pushback against the narrative that the world should see the end of oil and gas.

There is now a more nuanced understanding of the scale of the energy challenges as initial net-zero policies stutter, targets for other energies falter due to costs, and concerns rise about access to critical minerals.

Moreover, we are now seeing more focus on the capacities and national circumstances of all countries in the energy transitions agenda, not just a select few.

Here in the UK, for example, we saw the government announce new oil and gas production licenses in August, and we understand that new legislation to mandate new licensing rounds will be part of the King’s Speech later today.

The government has also scrapped a number of proposals and targets related to net-zero, and the UK Prime Minister has called for a more pragmatic, proportionate, and realistic approach.

Given these types of policy developments that are happening across the world, and the need to find sustainable future pathways for both energy security and reducing emissions, the research team at the OPEC Secretariat has reassessed in the World Oil Outlook 2023 just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions.

The data-driven approach now sees oil demand reaching 116 million barrels a day by 2045, around 6 mb/d higher than in the 2022 edition, and with the potential to be even higher.

Some may ask questions of this forecast, and that is their right, but allow me to add a few points of further context.

First: Energy demand is set to expand significantly in the decades ahead, by 23% to 2045 in our Outlook, as the global population expands, economies grow, and the world looks to alleviate energy poverty.

Second: This requires all energies; no single energy source can shoulder the heavy burden of meeting this expansion alone.

For example, we see global oil demand increasing by 17% to 2045, gas by 30% and renewables by more than 200%, albeit from a low base.

To be clear, OPEC Member Countries are embracing renewables.

From some, unfortunately, we still hear that oil demand will peak before the end of the decade, but let me share with you some further numbers.

In 2022 and 2023, global oil demand is set to have increased by almost 5 mb/d, and in 2024, we see further growth of 2.2 mb/d.

We acknowledge that these numbers are partly supported by a post-pandemic rebound, but what is clear is that oil demand continues to rise significantly.

In addition, in the period to 2030 alone, it is expected that another half a billion people will move into cities across the world as the global economy continues to expand.

Being in London, and to put this in an understandable context, this urbanization drive will require the addition of approximately 50 new Londons.

Let us just pause for a second, and imagine how much energy that requires.

It is clear we cannot replace an energy system overnight, or even in two-to-three decades. We should remember that 30 years ago fossil fuels made up over 80% of the energy mix, and this remains the same today.

At OPEC, we believe the world has to focus on the task of reducing emissions, not choosing energy sources.

This can be achieved through technologies such as carbon capture utilization and storage, direct air capture, carbon dioxide removal and clean hydrogen.

It is important to act with determination to ensure that emissions are reduced and people have access to the energy products and services they require to live a comfortable life.  These twin challenges should not be odds with each other.

This understanding is vital for future investments, with calls to stop investments in new oil projects misguided. If the necessary investments are not made, it will lead to energy chaos, not energy transitions.

For the oil industry alone, investment requirements out to 2045 total $14 trillion, or around $610 billion per year. It is vital that these are made; it is beneficial for both producers and consumers, and ultimately the wider global economy.

Ladies and gentlemen,

We believe that the future needs to see energy transitions that focus on an inclusive ‘all-peoples, all-fuels and all-technologies’ approach.

Energy transitions that enable economic growth, enhance social mobility, boost energy access, and reduce emissions at the same time.

This will be our message at COP28 that begins later this month in OPEC Member Country, the UAE, where we will have an OPEC pavilion for the first time.

At the OPEC pavilion, we will showcase how our Member Countries are responsible oil producers, investing to provide the world with energy security and investing to decarbonize and reduce emissions.

I invite all of you in the audience today to visit the OPEC pavilion if you plan to be at COP28 in Dubai.

                At OPEC, we also recognize how all timeframes are inherently interlinked. What happens today, or what is decided tomorrow, has a direct bearing on our long-term energy future.

It is why OPEC and OPEC+ continue to support balanced and stable markets as a platform for investments and just and inclusive energy transitions.

Thank you.