Ladies and gentlemen,
Good afternoon. Boa tarde.
I would like to welcome you all to the launch of OPEC’s flagship annual publication, the World Oil Outlook 2024.
It is a tremendous honour to launch this here in Brazil, and at such a major energy event, ROG.E, formerly known as Rio Oil & Gas.
I would like to thank the promoters of this event, the Brazilian Petroleum and Gas Institute, who do excellent work in supporting Brazil’s hydrocarbons sector.
And I would also like to thank His Excellency Alexandre Silveira, Brazil’s Minister of Energy and Mines, and his team at the ministry, for his close collaboration and support.
This is my third visit to Brazil since I became OPEC Secretary General in August 2022, including an extremely engaging meeting with the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October 2023. The President has a clear understanding of the energy challenges before us, and at OPEC we look forward to working with the government in the years ahead.
It all highlights the positive and ever-expanding cooperation between Brazil and OPEC, which is further underscored through the Charter of Cooperation (CoC) between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
This is a voluntary framework for dialogue and a platform for multilateralism on a host of energy issues, many of which are analyzed and elaborated on in this year’s World Oil Outlook.
The Charter offers inclusivity and broad dialogue, a means to bring all stakeholders together, which is evidently in line with Brazil’s approach to its G20 presidency in 2024, as well as its hosting of COP30 in 2025.
Holding the Presidency of the G20 and hosting COP30 back-to-back demonstrates Brazil’s unwavering commitment to finding solutions to issues of great importance and scale, and in this regard, I would like to offer the OPEC Secretariat’s full support.
The launch of the World Oil Outlook 2024 is a core part of this. The Outlook is central to OPEC’s embrace of transparency through dialogue and cooperation, and in helping provide a better understanding of all the intertwined issues that filter into our energy futures.
It is important to highlight the fact that ‘futures’ is plural. Energy futures mean different things to different people. There is no one-size-fits-all solution, there is no singular road ahead, and we need to recognize that there are different national circumstances.
What is clear is that future energy and oil demand growth primarily lies in the developing world, driven by increasing populations, growing economies, an expanding middle class and rapid urbanization.
Over the next six years to 2030, it is expected that another half a billion people will move to cities across the world. To put this in context, this urbanization drive will require the addition of approximately 74 cities the size of Rio de Janeiro.
We also need to remember the billions of people around the world that still lack access to modern energy services, including in Brazil. For these people, their energy future is not about thoughts on net zero. It is about achieving the energy basics that others take for granted, such as turning on a light, cooking on a clean stove or having motorized transport to travel to work or school.
The Outlook looks to shine a light on these issues and provide context to a future where we see global energy demand expanding by 24% to 2050.
What this underscores is that the world will continue to need all energies. It is also a future in which we need to embrace all technologies. And what this means is massive investment across the whole energy mix.
We need to invest adequately – today, tomorrow, and many decades into the future – in a manner reflecting realistic assumptions about what each energy source can offer and given the need to reduce emissions.
These issues will be highlighted in more detail in the presentation on the Outlook that follows.
Let me stress here that we see Brazil as a leader in how countries determine their own energy futures.
Brazil generated 89% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2023, leading the way in the G20, and is also South America’s largest oil producer. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook sees Brazil’s liquids output rising to 5.1 million barrels per day by 2029.
Like Brazil, OPEC Member Countries are investing in renewables, and in oil, to ensure that consumer demands are met. At the same time, they are also working hard to improve efficiencies, implement low-emissions solutions and mobilize cleaner technologies like carbon capture utilization and storage, clean hydrogen technologies, direct air capture, and carbon dioxide removal, all within the concept of the circular carbon economy.
Prudent energy policymaking to meet the world’s energy and climate challenge in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, should be steeped in real-world data, as embodied by our World Oil Outlook.
We need to ensure energy security, utilize all energies, deliver energy affordability and reduce emissions. These challenges are all intertwined.
The future has to be one where all stakeholders have a seat at the table, where all voices are heard. The World Oil Outlook is a key part of OPEC’s voice on our evolving energy futures, as this will be true of the 9th OPEC International Seminar that will take place in Vienna on 9-10 July next year.
The Seminar looks to foster dialogue and cooperation among industry stakeholders by facilitating open and candid discussions on topical issues affecting the petroleum and energy sectors. I invite all of you to attend.
With that I would like to handover to….