16 September 2025 - Today, the IEA published a report entitled, The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates, that states, “If current levels of production are to be maintained, over 45 million barrels per day of oil and around 2 000 billion cubic metres of natural gas would be needed in 2050 from new conventional fields.”

The IEA’s report also refers to factors that have discouraged oil industry investment, stating, “Market developments also influence oil and gas activities. For example, related to the shale revolution in the United States, the oil price crashes of 2014-2015 and 2020 as well as uncertainty about long-term oil demand have discouraged investment in the exploration and development of new large, long lead-time conventional hydrocarbon projects.”

However, the IEA has not referenced how its own advocacy of its Net Zero Emissions Scenario or its own prognosis of peak oil demand have discouraged investments and contributed to uncertainty about long-term oil demand. 

In May 2021, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, told The Guardian, “If governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal, from now – from this year.”

At today’s launch of its new report, the Executive Director stated, “An absence of upstream investment would remove the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production each year from the global market balance. The situation means that the industry has to run much faster just to stand still.”

In contrast to the IEA’s U-turning on this important issue, OPEC has consistently advocated for timely investments in the oil industry to account for decline rates and meet growing demand.

It is vital that all stakeholders are consistent in recognizing this and do not return to rhetoric that there should be no investment in new oil projects.