Excellencies, Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,

I would like to begin by thanking Mrs. Olu Arowolo Verheijen, Special Adviser to the President on Energy, for hosting this session.  

Three topics are at the heart of this panel discussion and, indeed, they are the great themes of our age. They are:

•          The nature of our energy future;
•          Africa’s role within it; and
•          The essential need for investment to secure an energy future worthy of future generations.

Much ink has been spilled on the nature of the world’s energy future. This is understandable given the enormous stakes involved.

We are confronted with the challenges of delivering energy security, meeting rising energy demand, reducing emissions, and increasing access to energy for those who go without.

For developing and emerging economies, like Nigeria, there is the additional challenge of generating revenue from producing our energy sources and using that to meet the development needs of our peoples.

Such challenges require policies that are clear-eyed, comprehend the difficult trade-offs that come with having multiple development needs, and are grounded in actualities. However, in recent years, the world has been bombarded by a swathe of policy recommendations, overly ambitious targets and arbitrary deadlines that amount to extreme wishful thinking.   

These policies are usually packaged with slogans like: ‘go green,’ ‘electrify everything’, and for those directed at the oil industry, ‘leave it in the ground.’ Some voices create the impression that renewables alone could solve all of the world’s environmental, economic, development and social challenges.

This created momentum that led an institution like the International Energy Agency (IEA) calling for an end to investments in new oil and gas projects. If such calls were heeded, we can only shudder at the possible consequences for developing countries and Africa.

Of course, every ambitious policy proposal will eventually have a rendezvous with reality.

‘Renewables alone’ and ‘electrify everything’ as concepts pose some very serious logistical and infrastructural questions.

For example, the world currently generates approximately between 27,000 and 30,000 terawatt hours of electricity. According to some researchers this would need to increase to between 90,000 and 130,000 terawatt hours to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. That is a 3.5 to 5-fold increase in electricity generation in roughly, a 25-year timeframe  ̶  an expansion unprecedented in human history.

For the requisite electricity grid infrastructure to achieve national energy and climate goals, 80 million kilometres of overhead power lines and underground cables, need to be added by 2040. That is the equivalent of replacing the entire existing global grid. The world has 15 years to do this.

The critical minerals essential to power lithium-ion batteries in EVs, wind turbines and solar panels, like graphite, copper and lithium, would have to be mined and refined at a scale and pace that has no precedent in human history.  

This rendezvous with reality is long overdue.

Of course, the world must reduce emissions, but we need solutions not slogans.

We need policies based on facts and not fantasies.

We need an approach driven by data and not delusions.

What is our energy reality? This is a question that must be raised when we contemplate our energy future.

The year 2024 saw global oil consumption reach a record high of about 104 million barrels per day. That said, it is a record that 2024 will not retain for very long.

If we look at the trajectory of the global population, which is expected to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050; urbanization trends, with two thirds of the global population expected to live in cities by 2050; and the global economy expected to double in size from 2023 to 2050; global energy demand is set to increase.

Global primary energy demand is expected to increase by 24% to 2050. All forms of energy will be necessary to meet this growth. There is room and, indeed, a need for renewables to meet this expanded energy demand, but we cannot put expectations on solar and wind that they are unable to fulfil. OPEC forecasts that the share of oil and gas in the energy mix remains above 53% through to 2050.

In the long-term, we see global oil demand increasing to over 120 mb/d in 2050. As already highlighted, there are many underlying factors behind this projected growth, but at a more micro level the growth of demand for petrochemicals, to produce the petroleum-derived products that are such an essential part of modern life, will be critical.

To reliably meet expected oil demand growth, the oil sector is set to require cumulative investments of $17.4 trillion by 2050. Sustainable stability in the oil market is an enabling factor for an investment friendly climate.

For this reason, OPEC and its partners under the umbrella of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ are committed to taking collective actions necessary to contribute to sustainable oil market stability.

When we recognize the realities of our energy future, this adds a focus to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. OPEC Member Countries are active in this regard. We invest heavily in renewable technologies; carbon capture, use and storage or CCUS projects; direct air capture; hydrogen projects; efficiency improvements; methane reduction technologies; and this is the tip of the iceberg.

OPEC and its Member Countries are committed to the goals of the Paris Agreement, but we recognize that the discovery of oil and the thousands of products that are derived from it cannot just be wished away or reversed.

Our challenge is harnessing the potential of this great resource in ever more efficient ways, while reducing emissions. I am convinced technological innovation will be key in unlocking an emissions-free future.

While seeking to accomplish this goal, we can never lose sight of the plight of those who do not have access to amenities others take for granted. Approximately 685 million people worldwide lack access to electricity, and 2.1 billion do not have access to clean cooking fuels and technologies; the vast majority of whom reside in sub-Saharan Africa.

What is clear when we assess all these interrelated challenges, is that Africa will play a crucial role in our energy future. The continent’s proven oil reserves amount to around 120 billion barrels. The world will need more of this oil in the future. Therefore, it is critical that the African oil and gas industry attracts the level of investment necessary to unlock this great potential.

OPEC’s role in this is contributing to market stability that offers reassurance and guidance to potential investors. Our market research and forecasting all point to the importance of Africa.

Additionally, we know from Nigeria’s countless contributions to our Organization’s successes, how rewarding it is to work in this great nation. So, we encourage all potential investors to look at Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

My message is invest, invest, invest.

As I conclude this scene-setting segment of our discussion, I would like to pose to the panel a question on what they see as the key steps necessary for unlocking Africa’s energy potential and how investments can be scaled up.  

Thank you.