OPEC MOMR November 2017
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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

53

Brazil

According to national sources,

Brazil’s liquids

output

declined by 0.06 mb/d m-o-m in August to

3.25 mb/d, to stand at the same level, y-o-y. A

47 tb/d m-o-m decline in crude output led to the

lowering of crude supply to average 2.58 mb/d. This

was a result of maintenance and unplanned

outages. According to Petrobras, preliminary data

in September shows liquids supply to rise by

0.06 mb/d to average 3.31 mb/d, including

2.64 mb/d of crude. Crude oil output from the

Santos Basin – mainly from pre-salt reservoirs – is

expected to rise by 0.18 mb/d. However, the growth

in Santos is usually offset by declines from post-salt

reservoirs in the Campos Basin and other mature

onshore fields.

Graph 5 - 21: Brazil’s liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Brazil’s three-quarter average crude oil output was higher by 0.11 mb/d at 2.62 mb/d compared to the same

period a year earlier, while this average indicates growth of 0.16 mb/d compared to the 2016 annual average

liquids output (including biofuels and NGLs). The reason for this mild growth was mainly due to the lasting

maintenance at platforms in both drilling regions of post-salt and pre-salt, as well as the heavy decline

reported from post-salt reservoirs in the Campos Basin. Oil production in Lula, the largest offshore field in

Brazil, reached an average of 0.8 mb/d in September while the y-t-d average indicates 0.72 mb/d, showing

growth of 0.19 mb/d from 2016.

Brazil’s annual oil supply forecast in 2017 was revised down by 31 tb/d, due to lower-than-expected output in

3Q17, to average 3.29 mb/d, and also owing to the downward adjustment in the forecast of 4Q17 which is

now expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d y-o-y to average 3.32 mb/d. The total supply forecast for 2018 was also

revised down owing to the base change in 2017, with forecast growth of 0.20 mb/d at an average supply of

3.52 mb/d.

FSU

FSU’s oil supply

is estimated to grow by

0.08 mb/d in 2017 to average 13.94 mb/d,

unchanged from the October

MOMR

. Total FSU

liquids production in 3Q17 declined by 0.1 mb/d

q-o-q to average 13.80 mb/d. Preliminary data

indicates marginally higher production in October at

13.85 mb/d.

Oil production in Russia, Azerbaijan and FSU

others is estimated to contract by 0.1 mb/d in 2017,

while oil supply from Kazakhstan will grow by

0.18 mb/d, to average 1.74 mb/d.

For 2018, output is forecast to decline by

0.01 mb/d, to average 13.93 mb/d, unchanged from

the previous month’s assessment. Other countries

in the region will also see declines, except

Kazakhstan.

Graph 5 - 22: FSU liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

370

228

29

93

135

140

341

172

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

180

164

130

-163

-200

33

27

98

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

13,400

13,500

13,600

13,700

13,800

13,900

14,000

14,100

14,200

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)