OPEC MOMR November 2017
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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

51

For 2017, the region is estimated to grow by 0.03 mb/d to average 3.84 mb/d and for 2018 as well, to

average 3.86 mb/d. Although production in Norway and Denmark is expected to decline, this will be offset by

growth in the output of the UK.

Norway

According to

Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

(NPD) data, preliminary production figures for September

2017 show average production of 1.77 mb/d of oil, NGL and condensates, a decrease of 0.17 mb/d

compared to the previous month due to maintenance work on some fields. Average liquids production in

September comprised of 1.44 mb/d for oil, down by 0.12 mb/d m-o-m and 0.33 mb/d for NGLs and

condensate, a drop of 0.08 mb/d m-o-m. However, oil production in September 2017 was about 11% below

the NPD’s prognosis for the month, but higher by 0.16 mb/d, or 10%, y-o-y.

As a result,

Norwegian oil supply

in 3Q17

reached 1.90 mb/d, a q-o-q decline of 0.1 mb/d, but

remains unchanged compared to the same quarter

a year ago.

The oil supply forecast for 2017 was revised down

by 0.01 mb/d due to weaker-than-expected output

in 3Q17 to average 2.01 mb/d for the year, and

estimated to grow by 0.02 mb/d, y-o-y.

For 2018, a contraction of 0.03 mb/d is expected

following a downward adjustment in all quarters by

30 tb/d, to reach an average of 1.98 mb/d.

Graph 5 - 18: Norway liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

UK

UK liquids production

rebounded in September to

increase by 0.08 mb/d m-o-m to average

1.01 mb/d, after dropping 0.03 mb/d in August.

Therefore, 3Q17 saw a decline of 0.05 mb/d q-o-q

to average 0.99 mb/d, up by 0.02 mb/d y-o-y.

UK oil supply over the first three quarters doesn’t

show any changes in terms of growth compared to

the average annual supply in 2016 at 1.03 mb/d.

However, October and 4Q17 liquids supply are

expected at higher level over 3Q17. As mentioned

in the last

MOMR

, production is nevertheless

expected to increase in the coming months to the

end of the year through the ramping up of new

fields, such as Quad 204 and Kraken as well as

from the 9 tb/d Arundel field, the 40 tb/d Western

Isles project and the 60 tb/d Catcher project

start-up.

Graph 5 - 19: UK liquids supply quarterly forecast,

2016-2018

The UK’s overall oil production in 2017 is predicted to grow by 0.01 mb/d y-o-y to average 1.04 mb/d, a

downward revision of 0.01 mb/d in terms of annual growth, due to lower-than-expected volumes due to the

heavy and continuous maintenance in 3Q17. For 2018, y-o-y growth of 0.07 mb/d is expected as new

projects will bring a total of 0.16 mb/d onstream in the UK.

47

70

0

-40

-34

-50

-3

-32

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-29

-7

24

55

33

39

94

102

-50

0

50

100

150

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)