OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017
, GDP growth exhibited a stable pattern so far this year, with 3Q17 growth at 5.1% y-o-y,
compared to 5.0% in each of the previous two quarters. It is worth noting that government consumption
expenditure returned to growth territory in 3Q17, increasing by 3.5% y-o-y, compared to the contraction of
1.9% y-o-y in 2Q17. GFCF also posted the fastest expansion since 1Q13, increasing by 7.1% y-o-y in 3Q17.
Household consumption was more or less stable at a growth rate of 4.9% in 3Q17. Both exports and imports
showed a steep acceleration in 3Q17, with exports surging by 17.3% y-o-y from 3.6% in 2Q17, and imports
rising by 15.1% y-o-y from 0.2% in 2Q17. Trade went up by 39% y-o-y in 3Q17. Consumer price inflation
eased to 3.6% in October, down from a 3.7% y-o-y increase in the previous month and the lowest in seven
months. The Bank of Indonesia policy rate was unchanged in October from a month earlier at 4.25%. In
2Q17, trade was supportive to growth in Indonesia as net exports of goods and services climbed by more
than 36% y-o-y. While exports increased by 3.4% y-o-y in 2Q17, imports posted slow increase of only 0.6%
y-o-y. GDP registered growth of 5.0% y-o-y in 2Q17, similar to 1Q17.
, GDP posted strong growth of 7.4% y-o-y in 3Q17, up from 6.2% in the previous quarter. This
represents the highest rate of growth in more than four years and was mainly due to the strong rise in
industry, services and forestry. Industry increased by 9.8% y-o-y in 3Q17, up from 6.6% in 2Q17. Services
registered growth of 7.9% y-o-y in 3Q17, up from 7.1% in the previous quarter, and growth in forestry
accelerated from 3.8% in 2Q17 to 6.0% in 3Q17 y-o-y. Inflation remained weak in October at 0.4% y-o-y,
from 0.6% a month earlier. The currency remained stable in the past several months versus the dollar and
the central bank’s discount rate was also unchanged at 4.25% since July 2017.
The contraction in the PMI for the private sector of
continued for the third consecutive month in
October, according to the Standard Bank South Africa PMI. The index posted 49.6 in October, from 48.5 in
the previous month. New orders, output and new export orders fell in October, reflecting weak domestic
economic activity and downbeat consumer confidence. Lower investor confidence also took its toll on the
economy as volumes of new exports declined for the first time in three months. The index readings suggest a
slowdown in economic growth in 3Q17. The economy grew by the fastest pace since 3Q15 in 2Q17. Growth
stood at 0.8% y-o-y, up from 0.2% in the previous quarter.
, the pound was stable in October following its slight appreciation a month earlier. The pound lost
nearly 95% of its value to the dollar during November 2016 through April 2017. Inflation continued posting a
reading above 30% for the eighth consecutive month in September and is expected to rise further in coming
months due to the recent reduction in subsidies to some fuel/energy items and public services. The
consumer price index rose by 32.9% y-o-y in September. The recession in the country’s non-oil private
sector continued in October, though at a notably slower pace. The Emirates NBD Egypt PMI rose to 48.4 in
October, up from 47.4 a month earlier. The pace of deceleration in new orders, employment and output
eased last month and business confidence reached its highest in 26 months, reflecting healthy optimism on
economic growth prospects in 2018.
The economy of
expanded by 0.9% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 0.1% in 2Q17. While growth in government
consumption slowed from 4.9% y-o-y in 2Q17 to 2.7% in 3Q17, private consumption accelerated to 2.6%
y-o-y in 3Q17 over 1.8% in 2Q17. GFCF continued its declining streak for the fourth consecutive quarter in
3Q17, by 4.1%. Exports of goods and services saw a slower decline in 3Q17 of 3.5% y-o-y versus a 4.2%
contraction in the previous quarter. Imports, on the other hand, increased to 7.0% y-o-y in 3Q17, compared
to growth of 4.7% in 2Q17. Consumer price inflation remained under 2% for the fourth consecutive month in
September, registering 1.4% y-o-y, from 1.8% in August. This is well below the inflation target of 3.0%.
Industrial sales increased in July and August 2017 after largely being in contraction since June 2016.