OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017
Graph 3 - 29: China’s industrial production
Graph 3 - 30: China’s PMIs
a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure
snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – was unchanged from a month earlier at
51.0 in October showing a further marginal improvement in the health of the sector. Operating conditions
have now strengthened in each of the past five months. Manufacturing companies in China reported a further
increase in new business during October, a slight improvement since September, but remained moderate
overall. New export sales rose at a similarly modest pace, following a marginal upturn in September. In
contrast, production increased only slightly in October. Moreover, the rate of growth was the weakest seen
for four months. At the same time, confidence towards the 12-month outlook for production moderated to its
second-lowest level since August 2016. Chinese manufacturing employment fell again in October, thereby
extending the current sequence of job shedding to four years.
Caixin services PMI
rose to 51.2 in October from 50.6 a month earlier. Business confidence
improved slightly while new order growth was modest and job creation remained marginal.
expectation was revised up to 6.8% from 6.7% for 2017 and was also revised up to
6.5% from 6.3% for 2018. China’s government is reportedly looking to generate GDP growth with best
quality, efficiency, and dynamism”. These comments came after the conclusion of the Communist Party
congress that granted the country’s president a level of authority unmatched in recent decades. In recent
years, China’s leaders have returned to strategies fuelled by debt and state investment to keep growth
stable. China’s target for GDP growth this year is around 6.5%.
OPEC Member Countries
posted -0.1% in September, from -0.2% y-o-y in August, maintaining its notable
easing since the beginning of the year due to the base-line effect, which could be a supporting factor to
private consumption. The non-oil private sector continued growing at strong pace in October. The Emirates
NBD Saudi Arabia PMI of October registered 55.6 in October, from 55.5 a month earlier, suggesting
continued solid improvement in the business conditions of the non-oil private sector. The survey showed a
sharp rise in both new orders and output. Strong domestic demand contributed to the strong new orders,
while new export orders went up for the third consecutive month. Employment also continued to rise in
October, extending the current streak of job creation growth to 43 months. Furthermore, confidence
regarding future growth reached a five-month high due to better expectations for economic conditions and
business investments. In 3Q17, the index was largely stable at an average of nearly 55.7. In 1H17, the index
averaged at 56.0, highlighting a higher rate of growth compared with the first six months of 2016.
% change y-o-y
Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics and
Sources: Caixin, IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.