OPEC MOMR November 2017
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Crude Oil Price Movements

4

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

The speculator group raised its combined futures and options positions in NYMEX WTI by 29,456 contracts

to 281,244 lots in the month of October, the

CFTC

said, the highest level since mid-April. Gross long

positions among money managers on the NYMEX surged to the highest since mid-March at

387,488 contracts, data showed. Meanwhile, gross short positions fell to 106,244 lots.

Similarly, hedge funds and money managers raised their combined futures and options position ICE Brent by

21,592 contracts to 530,237 lots, according to

ICE Exchange

, the highest ever recorded. It should also be

noted that speculative net length on Brent futures has increased through the period of rising prices since

July. This makes it likely that the amount of money invested in rising prices over the last couple of weeks

was at a high, surpassing previous peaks seen in 2014, prior to the major price declines, as well as earlier

this year when net length was built up considerably around the time OPEC production adjustments kicked

in.

Graph 1 - 2: NYMEX WTI vs. managed money net

long positions

Graph 1 - 3: ICE Brent vs. managed money net

long position

The long- to- short ratio in ICE Brent speculative positions increased from 8.4 to 10.4, while that of

NYMEX WTI remained at around 3.6. The total futures and options open interest volume in the two

exchanges was also up 1.3% at 6.23 million contracts.

The daily average traded volume for NYMEX WTI contracts dropped by 240,804 lots, or 9.2%, to

1,137,745 contracts, while that of ICE Brent was just 25,841 contracts lower, down by 1.7% at 918,657 lots.

Daily aggregate traded volume for both crude oil futures markets decreased by 266,645 contracts to

2.06 million futures contracts, or about 2.1 billion b/d of crude oil. Total traded volume in NYMEX WTI in

October was lower at 25.03 million contracts, while ICE Bent it was higher at 20.21 million contracts.

The futures market structure

The Brent and Dubai backwardation structure firmed further this month as the market rebalancing process

got underway, reflecting tighter supplies and lower global crude oil inventory levels, helping to unwind

floating storage. This is greatly due to the production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC

producers.

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US$/b

Managed money net long positions (RHS)

NYMEX WTI (LHS)

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Sources: CFTC , CME Group and OPEC Secretariat.

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US$/b

Managed money net long positions (RHS)

ICE Brent (LHS)

'000 Contracts

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and OPEC Secretariat.