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Balance of Supply and Demand
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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2016
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 remained unchanged from the previous report
to stand at 29.7 mb/d, which is 0.1 mb/d less than the 2014 level. In 2016, demand
for OPEC crude is projected to be 31.5 mb/d, unchanged from the last
MOMR
and
1.8 mb/d higher than last year.
Estimate for 2015
Demand for OPEC crude for 2015 remained unchanged from the previous month to
stand at 29.7 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the 2014 level. All quarters
remained unchanged. 1Q15 fell by 0.8 mb/d, while 2Q15 and 3Q15 remained flat
versus the same quarters last year. 4Q15 rose by 0.4 mb/d y-o-y.
Table 10.1: Summarized supply/demand balance for 2015, mb/d
Forecast for 2016
Demand for OPEC crude for 2016 remained unchanged from the previous
MOMR
and
is projected to increase by 1.8 mb/d to average 31.5 mb/d. Within the quarters, both
1Q16 and 4Q16 were revised down by 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively, while
2Q16 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d. 3Q16 remained unchanged. 1Q16 and 2Q16 are
expected to increase by 1.0 mb/d and 2.1 mb/d, respectively, while 3Q16 and 4Q16 are
both projected to increase, rising by 2.2 mb/d and 1.8 mb/d, respectively.
Table 10.2: Summarized supply/demand balance for 2016, mb/d
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015
(a) World oil demand
91.44 91.94 92.02 93.93 94.00 92.98
Non-OPEC supply
55.67 57.20 56.80 57.07 57.48 57.14
OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals
6.00 5.97 6.15 6.23 6.17 6.13
(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs 61.67 63.17 62.95 63.29 63.65 63.27
Difference (a-b)
29.77 28.77 29.07 30.64 30.34 29.71
OPEC crude oil production
30.79 31.05 31.92 32.24 32.28 31.88
Balance
1.02 2.29 2.86 1.60 1.94 2.17
Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.
2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016
(a) World oil demand
92.98 93.08 93.26 95.16 95.17 94.18
Non-OPEC supply
57.14 57.12 55.83 56.01 56.66 56.40
OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals
6.13 6.24 6.27 6.29 6.34 6.29
(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs 63.27 63.36 62.10 62.30 63.00 62.69
Difference (a-b)
29.71 29.72 31.17 32.86 32.17 31.49
OPEC crude oil production
31.88 32.31
Balance
2.17 2.59
Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.