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World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2016
55
Russia
Russia’s oil supply in April and May reached 11.06 mb/d and 11.05 mb/d, respectively.
This is a little weaker than in February and March, but still above 11 mb/d, according to
ministry information and estimations for monthly NGLs output. Higher growth in Russia is
due to the new 70 tb/d Yarudeiskoye field startup in December 2015. As mentioned in
the FSU summary, Russian production will drop by 120 tb/d in 2H16 compared with
1H16, mainly due to maintenance, including a 20-day shut-in at ExxonMobil’s Sakhalin 1
project in August. Nevertheless, according to the latest review of the most prolific fields in
Russia and supported by the remarkable growth seen in the first five months of the year,
averaging 11.09 mb/d, higher production by 0.26 mb/d over the same period a year ago
has been maintained. Oil supply in 2016 is expected grow by 0.13 mb/d to average
10.94 mb/d, revised up by 0.12 mb/d.
Caspian
Kazakhstan’s
oil production in April declined by 0.11 mb/d to average 1.50 mb/d,
mainly due to summer maintenance at the Karachaganak oil field. A further supply
contraction of 40 tb/d is anticipated for Kazakhstan in 2016, to bring production to
1.56 mb/d.
In
Azerbaijan
, oil supply declined by 20 tb/d to average 0.87 mb/d in April 2016. An
average oil supply of 0.85 mb/d is expected for 2Q16, 20 tb/d less than in 1Q16.
Average annual output growth was revised up by 20 tb/d, compared with the previous
month, therefore annual output is expected to decline y-o-y by 20 tb/d to reach
0.84 mb/d.
Graph 5.19: Kazakhstan quarterly oil
supply, 2014-2016
Graph 5.20: China quarterly oil supply,
2014-2016
Other Europe’s
supply is expected to remain steady, averaging 0.13 mb/d in 2015 as
well as in 2016.
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
mb/d
2014 2015 (estimate) 2016 (forecast)
Source: OPEC Secretariat.
4.00
4.05
4.10
4.15
4.20
4.25
4.30
4.35
4.40
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
mb/d
2014 2015 (estimate) 2016 (forecast)
Source: OPEC Secretariat.