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World Oil Supply
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OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2016
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply for 2016 remains unchanged from the previous report,
despite various changes in different regions; it is forecast to contract by
0.74 mb/d to average 56.40 mb/d. Downward revisions were seen mainly in
Canada, Brazil and Colombia. These are offset by upward revisions in the US, the
UK, Russia and Azerbaijan. Overall revisions have led to changes in all quarters
in 2016, particularly to a contraction in 2Q16 of 234 tb/d, mainly due to wildfires
in Canada. There was no revision to non-OPEC supply growth in 2015; it
remained at 1.47 mb/d.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil production growth in 2016 is expected at
0.16 mb/d, to average 6.29 mb/d.
In May, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 0.1 mb/d to average 32.36 mb/d,
according to secondary sources. As a result, preliminary data indicates that the
global oil supply decreased by 0.73 mb/d in May to average 94.51 mb/d.
Non-OPEC supply
According to the latest update to historical data, total non-OPEC oil supply for 2015
remained unchanged, averaging 57.14 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply for 2016 is forecast to
contract by 0.74 mb/d, despite several upward and downward revisions in May,
indicating no changes in absolute supply compared with a month earlier, to average
56.40 mb/d. Expectations for crude oil production reductions in Canada, Australia, Asia
Others, Brazil, Colombia and Oman will be offset by total upward revisions in the UK,
the US, Congo, Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is
subject to many uncertainties from economic and technical to geopolitical factors.
Graph 5.1: Non-OPEC quarterly oil supply, 2014-2016
The updating of historical data in 1Q16 led to non-OPEC oil supply in this quarter being
revised up by 162 tb/d, to average 57.12 mb/d. This includes upward changes in the
US, Canada, the UK, Russia and Azerbaijan, and downward revisions in Australia,
Brazil, Oman and Egypt. Moreover, 2Q16, 3Q16 and 4Q16 supply figures changed by
-234 tb/d, -39 tb/d and 111 tb/d to average 55.83 mb/d, 56.01 mb/d and 56.66 mb/d,
respectively.
53
54
55
56
57
58
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2014
2015
2016 (forecast)
mb/d
Source: OPEC Secretariat.