World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
World Oil Supply
Preliminary data indicates that world oil supply was down by 0.41 mb/d m-o-m in August to average
96.75 mb/d, higher by 1.66 mb/d, y-o-y.
Non-OPEC oil supply in August declined by 0.32 mb/d m-o-m to average 57.68 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply is
projected to grow by 0.78 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s prediction due to the
offsetting of the upward revision in the FSU by the downward revision in OECD Americas, to average
57.80 mb/d. The main changes for the month is a result of an increase in expected oil production growth in
Kazakhstan by 0.04 mb/d in 2017 and lower growth in the US oil supply
by 0.07 mb/d in 2017. The non-
OPEC oil supply forecast in 2018 was revised down by 0.10 mb/d due to the downward revisions in
Kazakhstan and Russia. Hence, non-OPEC supply to average 58.80 mb/d with a growth of 1.00 mb/d for
2018 is anticipated.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mb/d in 2017, an increase of
0.17 mb/d, y-o-y. In 2018, production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d.
In August 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to
average 32.76 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2017
Non-OPEC oil supply in August
declined by 0.32 mb/d m-o-m to 57.68 mb/d,
according to the preliminary
data as US oil production from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and parts of Eagle Ford was partially disrupted by
Hurricane Harvey and lower output was seen coming from the North Sea and Kazakhstan following seasonal
maintenance. Meanwhile, production in Canada, other OECD Europe and Brazil increased.
Graph 5 - 1: Revisions in annual changes of 2017* for selected countries
The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2017 remains unchanged from the previous MOMR at
but absolute supply has been revised up by 0.03 mb/d to 57.80 mb/d, partially due to changes
following the latest information including the upward adjustment in 2Q17 and the upward revision in 2H17
due to the new assessment of production in Kazakhstan. It is expected that US oil supply will account for the
biggest share of
non-OPEC supply growth for 2017
at 0.63 mb/d and the remaining comes mainly from
Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan, while Mexico, China and Colombia are the main countries showing a
contraction. Graph 5 - 2: Annual supply changes for selected countries in 2017*
Note: * 2017 = Forecast.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.