World Oil Demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
With data available for eight months of 2017 – monthly data until June and preliminary weekly data for July
and August – US oil demand is seen to grow strongly by around 0.5 mb/d. However, the full impact of
Hurricane Harvey is not yet reflected in the preliminary data. The bulk of growth originated in the lighter and
middle parts of the barrel; LPG and distillates, gas diesel oil and jet kerosene and gasoline demand to date
are continuing to see minor growth. US oil demand for the remainder of 2017 and 2018 is expected to be
determined by developments in distillate and gasoline usage in the road transportation sector and hence
indirectly by fuel price levels and the general economic activities, which most likely will support demand for
industrial and construction fuels. Therefore, the overall implied risks for the future development of US oil
demand are balanced. Upside risks originate in projected economic growth and oil usage in the
transportation and industrial sectors, while fuel substitution and vehicle efficiencies represent major
oil demand remained negative for another month in July, declining by 2.7% y-o-y. Shrinking
demand for the majority of petroleum product categories has been only partly offset by rising residual fuel oil
requirements. The risks for 2017 and 2018 Mexican oil demand are skewed to the downside and relate to the
development of the country’s overall economy.
, June came up strongly, increasing y-o-y for the second consecutive month. Demand for the main
petroleum products registered gains, particularly for residual fuel oil, gasoline and gas diesel oil. The overall
increase was partly offset by slightly declining naphtha demand. In 2018, Canadian oil demand is projected
to remain roughly at 2017 levels, showing only marginal increases with balanced risks.
OECD Americas’ oil demand
is expected to grow by 0.23 mb/d compared with 2016. In 2018,
OECD Americas’ oil demand is projected to increase by 0.19 mb/d compared with 2017.
Table 4 - 2: US oil demand, tb/d
Following strong growth for the whole of 2015 and 2016,
European oil demand
continued to surprise with a
strong performance in the first half of 2017 – most data covers up to June 2017 – with some preliminary
indications for July. Solid gains were seen on top of high historical baseline volumes during 2015 and 2016
and are the result of an improving economy and consequently rising oil usage in the transportation and
industrial sectors, as well as colder temperatures than the historical norm during the first quarter of 2017.
The bulk of gains were seen in middle distillates, diesel oil, jet kerosene and naphtha; gains were partly
offset by shrinking residual fuel oil and demand.
Sources: US Energy Information Administration and OPEC Secretariat.