World Oil Demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
Based on the latest available data,
OECD oil demand
growth was revised upward for the second
consecutive month by 60 tb/d to average 0.37 mb/d. Oil demand has been quite robust in 2Q17, particularly
in the Americas and Europe.
OECD America’s oil demand data implied further firm developments during the month of June, with gains in
transportation and industrial fuels and particularly strong gains in gasoline, jet fuel, gas diesel oil and LPG.
Despite this upward trend in 2Q17 (by 100 tb/d), expectations for 3Q17 have been lowered (by 40 tb/d) as
momentum in transportation fuels is expected to somewhat weaken as a result of the catastrophic effects of
Hurricane Harvey in the month of August. The historical baseline for 2016 was also adjusted lower
(by 70 tb/d for the full year) to account for the most up-to-date data and assessments.
OECD Europe oil demand data continued to outperform initial projections. Improving economic conditions
across the region, along with positive vehicle sales and a low oil price environment, are in line with upward
adjustments of 100 tb/d and 40 tb/d in 2Q17 and 3Q17, respectively. For 2018, oil demand growth
projections were adjusted higher (by 30 tb/d for the full year) from last month’s report, in line with the steady
economic outlook for Europe.
Expectations for the OECD Asia Pacific region remained unchanged from last month’s report. The flourishing
petrochemical industry in South Korea was roughly offset by declining oil demand in Japan. Oil demand
growth for 2018 was revised slightly upwards by 10 tb/d as a result of midly improved expectations in the
Graph 4 - 1: OECD Americas oil demand, y-o-y
Graph 4 - 2: US gasoline demand, y-o-y change
The latest available
monthly data for June calls for a strong increase in oil demand of around 0.7 mb/d
y-o-y, continuing the recently observed steep growth in oil demand and in line with a number of key
indicators – the country’s robust economic growth, industrial activity and the low oil price environment.
Gains in oil demand for another month came mainly from the transportation and industrial sectors.
Demand for LPG was seen as growing y-o-y, notably for the petrochemical and to a minor extent the
transportation sectors. June distillate demand increased sharply by more than 0.34 mb/d y-o-y, with the bulk
of gains registered in the industrial sector. Growth in jet kerosene was also solid, as expected at the
beginning of the traditional holiday season and in line with increased air travel. June gasoline requirements
continued to grow for the third consecutive month, despite declining vehicle sales by 1.5% year-to-April as
compared to same period last year and a high baseline for the same month in 2016. Moreover, June residual
fuel oil requirements remained roughly flat y-o-y.
Sources: National, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and
Source: US Energy Information Administration.