MOMR September 2017
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World Economy

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

29

Other Asia

In

Indonesia

, the GDP registered growth of 5.0% y-o-y in 2Q17, similar to 1Q17. Growth in household

consumption expenditures was unchanged from first quarter at nearly 5.0%. However, general government

consumption expenditures dropped by 1.9% y-o-y in 2Q17, compared with 2.7% growth in the previous

quarter. The GFCF, on the other hand, accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y growth in 2Q17, up from 4.8% in 1Q17.

Trade was also supportive of growth as net exports of goods and services climbed by more than 36% y-o-y

in 2Q17. While exports increased by 3.4% y-o-y in 2Q17, imports posted a slow increase of only 0.6% y-o-y.

Consumer price inflation posted a 3.8% y-o-y increase in August, down from the previous month and the

lowest in five months. The Bank of Indonesia interest rate was unchanged in July at 6.5%.

In

Thailand

, the GDP registered its fastest growth in 2Q17 since 1Q13, growing by 3.7% y-o-y, up from 3.3%

in the previous quarter. Despite a slowdown in the private consumption expenditure pace of growth, greater

government consumption expenditures and trade led to higher GDP growth in 2Q17. Government

consumption accelerated from 0.3% y-o-y in 1Q17 to 2.7% in 2Q17. Exports posted their fastest growth

since 4Q12, up by 6.0%, whereas imports increased by 8.2% y-o-y in 2Q17. Consumer prices increased by

0.3% y-o-y in August from July’s 0.2%.

At the time of writing, the UN is in the process of considering further sanctions on

North Korea

. However,

barring a dramatic escalation in tensions, the sanctions being considered are not expected to have a

significant impact on the global economy in 2017 and 2018, due to the country’s negligible share in the world

economy

Africa

Two large African economies posted encouraging GDP growth in 2Q17. In

Nigeria

, the GDP saw 0.6% y-o-y

growth in 2Q17, following five quarters of recession, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

In

South Africa

, the GDP grew at its fastest pace since 3Q15 in 2Q17. Growth stood at 0.8% y-o-y, up from

0.2% in the previous quarter. Private consumption increased by a notably faster pace of 1.7% y-o-y to reach

its highest point since 4Q15. Public consumption slightly increased by 0.1% y-o-y in 2Q17 vs a 0.3%

contraction posted the previous quarter. The GFCF, on the other hand, remained in contraction territory in

2Q17. Trade was not supportive of growth in 2Q17, as exports declined by 0.6% y-o-y from growth of 0.7%

in 1Q17, while imports increased by 4.7% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 0.6% in the previous quarter.

In

Egypt

, the pound slightly appreciated by 0.9% m-o-m in August against the dollar after accumulating

depreciation of nearly 95% from November 2016 through to April 2017. Inflation continued posting readings

north of 30% for the sixth consecutive month in July and is expected to rise further in the coming months due

to a recent reduction in subsidies for some fuel/energy items and public services. The country’s non-oil

private sector markedly improved in August as suggested by its respective PMI due to an increase in new

orders from abroad and the weakest decline in output. The index registered 48.9 in August, up from July’s

48.6.

Latin America

In

Chile

, the GDP expanded by 0.9% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 0.1% in 1Q17. While government consumption

showed slower growth at a rate of 2.7% y-o-y in 2Q17, private consumption growth picked up to 2.6% in

2Q17 vs 1.8% in the previous quarter. The contribution of GFCF to growth continued to be negative in 2Q17

for the fourth consecutive quarter. The GFCF contracted by 4.1% y-o-y in 2Q17 vs a 2.4% contraction in

1Q17. Trade also did not provide support for higher GDP growth in 2Q17, with exports of goods and services

dropping by 3.5% y-o-y and imports of goods and services increasing by 7.0%. In 1Q17, the GDP of Chile

grew at its slowest pace since 3Q09 during the global financial crisis. The economy posted growth of just

0.1% y-o-y in 1Q17 due to a decline in private consumption and GFCF.