World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017
World Oil Supply
World oil supply in September was revised up by 0.41 mb/d m-o-m from the previous MOMR to average
96.50 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.08 mb/d y-o-y.
Non-OPEC oil supply in September was up by 0.31 mb/d m-o-m to average 57.65 mb/d and is now
projected to grow by 0.68 mb/d y-o-y in 2017 to average 57.69 mb/d, representing a downward revision of
0.10 mb/d from last month’s report. While production in the FSU, OECD Americas and other Asia was
revised down by a total 0.14 mb/d, oil supply in OECD Europe and Africa was revised up by 0.03 mb/d and
0.01 mb/d respectively. The non-OPEC oil supply forecast in 2018 was also revised downward by 0.06 mb/d
to average 58.64 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.94 mb/d y-o-y.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.17 mb/d
y-o-y. In 2018, production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d.
In September 2017, OPEC crude oil production increased by 88 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to
average 32.75 mb/d.
Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2017
The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2017
has been revised downward by 0.10 mb/d since last
month’s MOMR to 0.68 mb/d, thereby averaging
57.69 mb/d. While the supply forecast for the UK,
Colombia and Africa others has marginally
improved, the expected growth in the US, Mexico,
Brazil, Russia and Chad has been adjusted down.
Non-OPEC preliminary oil supply in September
rose by 0.31 mb/d m-o-m, mainly in the US,
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Brazil and the UK to
average 57.65 mb/d.
The US remains the key driver of non-OPEC supply
growth, adding 0.60 mb/d to non-OPEC production
in 2017. Brazil was the second largest contributor,
adding 0.21 mb/d, followed by Canada, Kazakhstan
and Ghana, which added 0.19 mb/d, 0.18 mb/d and
0.07 mb/d, respectively. Output in Mexico, China,
Azerbaijan, Colombia, Russia and Oman saw
declines in 2017.
Graph 5 - 1:Revisions in annual changes of 2017*
for selected countries
Note: * 2017 = Forecast.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.