OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017
, the pound slightly appreciated by 1.1% m-o-m in July against the US dollar after accumulating
nearly 95% depreciation during November 2016 through April 2017. Inflation continued posting reading north
of 30% for the fifth consecutive month in June and is expected to rise further in coming months due to the
recent reduction in subsidies to some fuel/energy items and public services. The country’s non-oil private
sector continued deteriorating in July as suggested by its respective PMI due to the fall in output. However,
the deterioration in new orders was halted last month following a 21-month streak of contraction. New orders
was not changed in July. Moreover, the decline in output, while continuing, happened at the slowest pace
seen in the past 12 months.
, the trade surplus increased in June 2017 to 10.67 billion rand, from 7.22 billion rand in May
due to a marginal decrease in exports of only 0.6%, while imports dropped by 4.2%. In 1H16, imports went
down by 1.4%, whereas exports rose by 4.7%. Inflation posted eased to 5.0% y-o-y in June, its lowest since
November 2015. The Reserve Bank of South Africa lowered its policy rate from 7.00% in June to 6.92% in
July. The country’s private sector somewhat improved in July, according to the Standard Bank South Africa
PMI. The index posted 50.1 in July, up from June’s 49.0 due to the growth in new orders and employment.
In 1Q17, the GDP of
grew by its slowest pace since 3Q09, which took place during the Global
Financial Crisis. The economy posted growth of just 0.1% y-o-y in 1Q17. Private consumption went down to
2.0% y-o-y growth, from a 2.4% rise in the previous quarter and a 2.7% increase in 1Q16. Government
consumption grew by a faster pace of 5.1% y-o-y in 1Q17 vs. 1.7% in the previous quarter and 4.7% in
1Q16. The decline in GFCF continued in 1Q17, though at lesser rate of 2.4% y-o-y, compared to a 5.0%
y-o-y contraction in 4Q16. However, the trade part largely contributed to the barely positive GDP growth.
Exports declined by 4.9% y-o-y in 1Q17, signalling the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Imports,
on the other hand, went up by 4.2% y-o-y, its highest growth rate since 2Q13.
, GDP in 1Q17 posted highest growth since 2Q14, thanks to a sharp increase in investment and
balanced changes in trade. GDP grew by 4.2% y-o-y in 1Q17. While public consumption declined by 4.6%
y-o-y, the deepest since 2Q07, private consumption registered a 3.6% y-o-y increase. Most notably, GFCF
jumped by 28.4% y-o-y, whereas exports and imports grew by close rates of 9.4% and 10.0% y-o-y,
respectively. The Hungarian currency, the Forint, appreciated for the third month in a row in July, rising by
2.9% m-o-m vs. the US dollar. Inflation dropped below 2% in June 2017 for the first time in six months.
Inflation posted 1.9% y-o-y in June, down from 2.1% in the previous month.