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13

OPEC bulletin 8–9/17

C o n f e r e n c e N o t e s

see solid global economic growth of 3.4 per cent in both

2017 and 2018.”

The Secretary General noted that several challenges

still needed to be overcome before a rebalanced market

would be attainable.

One area is the continued increases in supply com-

ing from non-OPEC countries, mainly in North America.

“On the supply side, non-OPEC supply from coun-

tries outside of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has

increased this year, and there are expectations for

greater quantities, mainly in the US from tight oil.

Overall growth for non-OPEC this year is now expected

to be 800,000 b/d.”

He added that an increasing level of volatility had

entered the market and was affecting market sentiment.

“The period since the last JMMC meeting in May has

also been one of mixed market sentiment. It has been

an unpredictable period, with significant price volatility.

Traders have been seemingly unclear as to how they view

the market in the second half of 2017 and into 2018.”

Another reason for concern, he said, was the lack of

robust long-term investments, which are crucial to ensur-

ing future supply.

“While it has been positive to see short-cycle indus-

try investments returning, we need to recognize that the

global industry still requires the return of more long-cycle

investments, the baseload for the industry’s long-term

future.”

The Secretary General concluded his remarks by

encouraging the participating OPEC and non-OPEC coun-

tries to stay focused on the task at hand so that their hard

work would pay off in the end.

“We should not be side-tracked by this external

analysis or media report and we need to appreciate that

bumps on themarket rebalancing path were always going

to be part and parcel of the process. We are also only just

over three weeks into the renewal of the ‘Declaration of

Cooperation’, there are more than eight months remain-

ing. It is always wise to look ahead, but we should not

try and look further than we can see. We need to focus

on the now, and ensure that each step we take moves us

closer to our stated goal.”

Mohammad Sanusi

Barkindo, OPEC

Secretary General.

All images in this article are courtesy of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation.