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World Oil Supply

54

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Russia

Preliminary

Russian liquids output

in October

increased by 0.02 mb/d m-o-m to average

10.95 mb/d as most of the maintenance was

completed at the end of September. This output

was below the required level of 10.98 mb/d agreed

in Declaration of Cooperation with OPEC and other

non-OPEC participants. The average oil output of

Russia, including NGLs, in 3Q17 at 10.95 mb/d was

also below this level, according to the Ministry of

Energy. Moreover, Russia’s liquids output in 2Q17

indicates an average of 10.99 mb/d, which

represents a drop of 0.26 mb/d over 1Q17, and

output in 3Q17 compared to 1Q17 indicates a drop

in production by 300 tb/d.

According to the latest assessment, Russian oil

production in 2017 is expected to decline by

0.04 mb/d to average 11.04 mb/d, unchanged

compared to the last month’s assessment. For

2018, a contraction of 0.01 mb/d is forecast.

Graph 5 - 23: Russia liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Caspian

In

Azerbaijan

, according to data provided by the

Ministry of Energy, oil production increased by

0.05 mb/d m-o-m, averaging 0.80 mb/d in

September, higher by 0.01 mb/d, y-o-y. Oil

production in 3Q17 declined by 0.02 mb/d q-o-q to

average 0.79 mb/d. A contraction of 0.06 mb/d and

0.05 mb/d is anticipated for Azeri oil production in

2017 and 2018, to average 0.79 mb/d and

0.74 mb/d, respectively.

Kazakhstan’s liquids production

increased by

0.05 mb/d m-o-m to average 1.72 mb/d in

September. While crude oil increased m-o-m by

54 tb/d to 1.45 mb/d, NGLs output remained steady

at 0.27 mb/d.

Kazakh oil output rose in the first nine months of

the year by 0.16 mb/d over the same period a year

earlier.

Graph 5 - 24: Kazakhstan liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

176

9

-80

-267

-267

14

83

122

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

10,800

10,900

11,000

11,100

11,200

11,300

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

103

222

268

123

102

105

8

38

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)