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World Oil Supply

50

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Canada shows the greatest supply growth potential

for 4Q17 start-ups. Resources coming online have

doubled this year, compared to last year. The main

contributor is Fort Hills Phase 1, scheduled to begin

producing oil by the end of 2017. Plateau liquids

production is estimated at 171 tb/d. CNRL’s

Horizon phase 3 with 876 mb of recoverable

resources will contribute the most to 2017

production and the asset is expected to reach a

production plateau of 72 tb/d of liquids by 2020. It is

also expected that the Hebron offshore field will

start oil production in mid-December by

ExxonMobil. The plateau liquids production from

Hebron is estimated at 123 tb/d.

Total Canadian oil supplies

based on actual

production data despite all disruptions owing to the

wildfires are forecast to grow by 0.26 mb/d y-o-y

supported by new volumes coming online in 2017

to average 4.77 mb/d, indicating an upward revision

of 0.07 mb/d compares to last month’s assessment.

Graph 5 - 16: Canada liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

For 2018, the forecast has been also revised up by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.99 mb/d, showing growth of

0.23 mb/d, y-o-y.

Mexico

Mexican oil production

fell by 0.20 mb/d m-o-m in

September to average 2.00 mb/d, lower y-o-y by

0.42 mb/d. This drop was due to a drop of 200 tb/d

m-o-m in crude oil output to average 1.73 mb/d,

mainly following a deep decline from the

Ku-Maloob-Zaap field, where output fell y-o-y by

0.15 mb/d, on later-than-scheduled maintenance

owing to the consecutive hurricanes in the GoM.

The lower oil production from other mature fields

such as Cantarell and Chuc have already impacted

the Mexican oil output compared to a year ago.

Preliminary liquids output in October is expected to

rise to 2.22 mb/d. Following a downward

adjustment to the production forecast of 3Q17 and

4Q17, the annual output was revised down by

0.04 mb/d compared to the previous forecast to

average 2.23 mb/d, showing a contraction of

0.23 mb/d, y-o-y.

Graph 5 - 17: Mexico liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Based on these changes, the quarterly decline trend and the productivity performance, the forecast for 2018

has also been adjusted down by 0.05 mb/d to average at 2.01 mb/d, showing an annual decline of

0.22 mb/d.

OECD Europe

Actual

OECD Europe’s oil supply

was down by 0.07 mb/d m-o-m in September to reach 3.61 mb/d, while

this was higher by 0.30 mb/d y-o-y. Hence, total oil output in 3Q17 stood at 3.69 mb/d, despite declining by

0.11 mb/d q-o-q, but was higher y-o-y by 0.05 mb/d. Production in Norway declined in September m-o-m

while oil output grew in the UK and other OECD Europe.

302

609

187

-38

-57

466

181

307

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

5,300

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-213

-180

-298

-247

-243

-297

-166 -176

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)