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World Oil Supply

46

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Graph 5 - 7: OECD Americas liquids supply

quarterly forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 8: US liquids supply quarterly forecast,

2016-2018

US

According to the EIA, monthly crude oil production averaged 9.20 mb/d in August 2017, representing a

decrease of 31 tb/d from a month earlier. In August, US crude oil and total supply data showed a lower level,

compared to preliminary US weekly reports.

Total US supply,

excluding processing gains, declined by 0.04 mb/d to average 14.24 mb/d in August.

US NGLs were down by 0.05 mb/d to average 3.71 mb/d, mainly from unconventional sources. Crude oil

production increased m-o-m in North Dakota (+37 tb/d) to average 1,068 tb/d, Colorado (+32 tb/d) to average

374 tb/d, New Mexico (+14 tb/d) to average 462 tb/d and in Alaska oil output increased by 28 tb/d m-o-m to

average 451 tb/d, while crude output in Texas following Hurricane Harvey and heavy flooding in parts of the

Eagle Ford region declined by 108 tb/d m-o-m to average 3,366 tb/d, up by 213 tb/d from December 2016

and up by 196 tb/d y-o-y. Moreover, production in the Gulf of Mexico was also affected by Hurricane Harvey

and declined by 66 tb/d to average 1,693 tb/d, whereby the eight-month average from January at 1,709 tb/d

indicates growth of 112 tb/d compared to the same period a year earlier.

The

US crude oil production

forecast for 2017 was revised down by 0.01 mb/d to average 9.26 mb/d, and

is now expected to grow by 0.40 mb/d y-o-y, while US NGLs output is expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d y-o-y,

to average 3.69 mb/d. The annual output of other liquids, mainly biofuels, is expected at 1.27 mb/d,

unchanged over the previous year. The US crude oil production in 2018 is expected to grow by 0.54 mb/d to

average 9.80 mb/d, with growth of 0.31 mb/d anticipated for NGLs. US liquids supply in 2017 and 2018 is

expected to increase by 0.59 mb/d and 0.87 mb/d, to average 14.22 mb/d and 15.09 mb/d, respectively.

US Lower 48 states’ onshore crude oil output declined from a peak of 7.63 mb/d in March 2015 to 6.51 mb/d

in December 2016, but gathered renewed momentum in 2017. In August 2017, it had grown by 537 tb/d over

the December level to average 7.04 mb/d.

Table 5 - 4: US liquids production breakdown, mb/d

84

819

778

778

764

1,094

823

821

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

19,500

20,000

20,500

21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

389

888

1,063

1,063

925

809 690

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

12,800

13,300

13,800

14,300

14,800

15,300

15,800

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

Change

Change

Change

2015

2016 2016/15

2017* 2017/16

2018* 2018/17

Tight crude

4.58

4.24

-0.34

4.67

0.43

5.29

0.62

Gulf of Mexico crude

1.52

1.60

0.08

1.70

0.10

1.78

0.08

Conventional crude oil

3.31

3.02

-0.29

2.89

-0.13

2.73

-0.16

Unconventional NGLs

2.35

2.56

0.21

2.68

0.12

2.92

0.24

Conventional NGLs

1.00

0.95

-0.05

1.01

0.06

1.08

0.07

Biofuels + Other liquids

1.28

1.27

-0.02

1.27

0.00

1.29

0.02

US total supply

14.03

13.63

-0.40

14.22

0.59

15.09

0.87

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Sources: Energy Information Administration, Rystad Energy and OPEC Secretariat.