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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

45

Table 5 - 3: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018*, mb/d

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017 and 2018

OECD

OECD liquids production

in 2017 remains unchanged at 25.46 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.62 mb/d y-o-y.

OECD Americas saw an upward revision by 16 tb/d, while OECD Europe’s supply estimation was revised

down by 12 tb/d, leading to annual growth of 0.62 mb/d and 0.03 mb/d y-o-y, respectively. OECD Asia

Pacific is expected to decline by 0.02 mb/d to average 0.40 mb/d in 2017.

For 2018, OECD supply is forecast to average 26.39 mb/d, representing growth of 0.93 mb/d, mainly from

OECD Americas.

OECD Americas

OECD Americas’ oil supply

in 2017 is predicted to average 21.23 mb/d, an increase of 0.62 mb/d y-o-y.

The oil supply forecast was revised up by 16 tb/d this month owing to the upward adjustment of Canada’s

production by 0.07 mb/d to 4.77 mb/d, breaking down in 3Q17 by 124 tb/d and also in 4Q17 by 160 tb/d.

Oil supply in the US and Mexico was revised down by 0.01 mb/d and 0.04 mb/d, to average 14.22 mb/d and

2.23 mb/d, respectively.

In 2018, oil supply in OECD Americas is expected to grow by 0.88 mb/d to average 22.10 mb/d. The US and

Canadian oil supply is expected to grow by 0.87 mb/d and 0.23 mb/d respectively, while a continuation of the

annual decline in Mexico by 0.22 mb/d is anticipated for next year.

2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 Growth

%

Americas

21.23 21.87 22.03 22.08 22.42 22.10

0.88 4.12

of which US

14.22 14.88 15.04 15.10 15.34 15.09

0.87 6.12

Europe

3.84 3.93 3.82 3.75 3.96 3.86

0.03 0.72

Asia Pacific

0.40 0.40 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.43

0.03 6.89

Total OECD

25.46 26.20 26.27 26.27 26.83 26.39

0.93 3.66

Other Asia

3.64 3.61 3.60 3.58 3.56 3.59

-0.05 -1.45

Latin America

5.23 5.33 5.31 5.45 5.36 5.36

0.14 2.61

Middle East

1.24 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.19

-0.05 -3.98

Africa

1.85 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90

0.04 2.25

Total DCs

11.96 12.03 12.00 12.11 12.00 12.03

0.08 0.64

FSU

13.94 13.93 13.93 13.82 14.02 13.93

-0.01 -0.07

of which Russia

11.04 10.98 11.01 11.03 11.10 11.03

-0.01 -0.10

Other Europe

0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13

0.00 -0.63

China

3.98 3.90 3.81 3.80 3.80 3.83

-0.15 -3.87

Total "Other regions"

18.04 17.96 17.87 17.75 17.94 17.88

-0.16 -0.91

Total non-OPEC

production

55.47 56.19 56.14 56.13 56.77 56.31

0.84 1.52

Processing gains

2.21 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23

0.03 1.32

Total non-OPEC supply

57.67 58.42 58.38 58.37 59.00 58.54

0.87 1.51

Previous estimate

57.69 58.56 58.48 58.38 59.13 58.64

0.94 0.00

Revision

-0.02 -0.14 -0.10 -0.01 -0.13 -0.09

-0.07 1.51

Note: * 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change 2018/17