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World Oil Supply

44

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Graph 5 - 4

highlights actual non-OPEC quarterly

oil supply in 2016 the estimate for 2017 and

forecast for 2018. The quarterly distribution for non-

OPEC supply in 2017 indicates the regular

seasonal pattern due to maintenance, particularly in

offshore areas, but with higher production levels

compared to the same quarters in 2016. 4Q17 is

forecast to be the quarter showing the highest level

of oil supply at 58.20 mb/d, compared with other

quarters. For 2018, due to the increase in US shale

production, higher growth is expected, as well as a

higher quarterly distribution throughout the year.

1H18 is forecast higher by 0.64 mb/d than 2H17,

and 2H18 is forecast higher by 0.41 mb/d than the

first half, averaging 58.83 mb/d (

Graphs 5 - 5 and

5 - 6

).

Graph 5 - 4: Non-OPEC oil supply, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 5: Annual supply changes for selected

countries in 2018*

Graph 5 - 6: Regional non-OPEC supply growth,

y-o-y change

57.71

56.24

56.53

57.59

57.87

57.28

57.34

58.20

58.42

58.38

58.37

59.00

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2016

2017

(Estimate)

2018

(Forecast)

mb/d

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

156

1,039

813

607

555

1,095

1,024

807

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Amer. Eur. AP. O.

Asia

LA ME Africa FSU China

OECD

Non-OECD

mb/d

2016/15 2017/16 2018/17

Note: 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.