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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

43

Table 5 - 2: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017*, mb/d

Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2018

Non-OPEC supply in 2018

was revised down by 94 tb/d compared to last month’s analysis to average

58.54 mb/d, and now is expected to grow at a slower pace, which was also revised down by 71 tb/d to

0.87 mb/d y-o-y, compared to the previous month’s

MOMR

.

This is mainly due to lower-than-expected supply

forecast for Mexico, Norway, Other OECD Europe,

Australia, India and Brazil, while the expectations

for Canada, Colombia and China were revised up

this month. As a result, overall non-OPEC supply

growth for the next year was revised down by

0.07 mb/d to average 0.87 mb/d. The US, Canada,

Brazil, the UK, Kazakhstan, Ghana and Australia,

are expected to be the key countries driving growth

next year, in contrast to Mexico, China, Azerbaijan

Colombia and Oman, which are expected to see a

further decline in oil supply.

Graph 5 - 3: Annual supply changes for selected

countries in 2018*

2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 Growth

%

Americas

20.61 21.10 20.94 21.25 21.60 21.23

0.62 2.99

of which US

13.63 13.81 14.11 14.30 14.65 14.22

0.59 4.30

Europe

3.81 3.94 3.80 3.69 3.92 3.84

0.03 0.79

Asia Pacific

0.42 0.39 0.39 0.42 0.41 0.40

-0.02 -4.99

Total OECD

24.84 25.43 25.13 25.36 25.93 25.46

0.62 2.52

Other Asia

3.72 3.72 3.63 3.60 3.62 3.64

-0.08 -2.07

Latin America

5.10 5.20 5.21 5.20 5.30 5.23

0.12 2.42

Middle East

1.28 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.22 1.24

-0.04 -3.32

Africa

1.80 1.80 1.82 1.88 1.91 1.85

0.06 3.08

Total DCs

11.90 11.96 11.90 11.92 12.06 11.96

0.06 0.50

FSU

13.86 14.13 13.90 13.80 13.93 13.94

0.08 0.55

of which Russia

11.08 11.25 10.99 10.95 10.98 11.04

-0.04 -0.38

Other Europe

0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13

0.00 -3.02

China

4.10 4.02 4.02 3.94 3.94 3.98

-0.11 -2.79

Total "Other regions"

18.09 18.27 18.05 17.86 18.00 18.04

-0.04 -0.23

Total non-OPEC

production

54.82 55.66 55.08 55.14 55.99 55.47

0.64 1.17

Processing gains

2.19 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

0.01 0.50

Total non-OPEC supply

57.02 57.87 57.28 57.34 58.20 57.67

0.65 1.15

Previous estimate

57.02 57.87 57.29 57.34 58.28 57.69

0.68 1.19

Revision

0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.02

-0.02 -0.04

Note: * 2017 = Estimate.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change 2017/16

-0.22

-0.15

-0.05

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.20

0.23

0.87

-0.4

0.1

0.6

1.1

Mexico

China

Azerbaijan

Australia

Ghana

Kazakhstan

UK

Brazil

Canada

US

mb/d

Non-OPEC

supply growth

2018/17

0.87 mb/d

Note: * 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.