World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017
In OECD Americas, the supply forecast in Canada
was revised up for the current year by 0.07 mb/d,
while the US and Mexico’s production forecast were
revised down. The Canadian liquids production
forecast for 2018 was also revised up by 0.04 mb/d
to average 0.23 mb/d, y-o-y. In OECD Europe,
Norwegian oil production for 2018 was revised
down as was the forecast for Australia.
Nevertheless, OECD supply growth in 2018
remains at 0.9 mb/d.
In Developing Countries (DCs), Brazil’s production
forecast was revised down in 2017 and 2018,
following the slowdown in expected growth in 2Q17
and 3Q17, but at the same time, the supply forecast
for Colombia for both years was revised up due to
higher-than-expected actual production in the past
three quarters. Moreover, India’s supply forecast
was also adjusted down for 2018. Following the
upward revisions in China’s supply forecast for
3Q18 and 4Q18, a lesser decline is expected for
Chinese production in 2018.
Graph 5 - 1: MOMR Nov 17/Oct 17 revisions in
2017* and 2018* annual supply changes
Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2017
The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2017
has been revised downward by 0.02 mb/d since last
month’s assessment to 0.65 mb/d, to average
57.67 mb/d. While the supply forecast for Canada
and Colombia has improved, expected growth in
the US, Mexico, Norway, UK, India, Brazil and FSU
others has been adjusted down. Non-OPEC
preliminary oil supply in October rose by 0.52 mb/d
m-o-m, mainly in Mexico, Norway, UK, Malaysia,
Brazil, Congo, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and China
while part of this incremental output in October was
offset by declines in the US, Canada and Ghana to
average 57.60 mb/d.
The US remains the key driver of non-OPEC supply
growth, adding 0.59 mb/d to non-OPEC production
in 2017, supported by other countries such as;
Canada with 0.26 mb/d, Brazil with 0.18 mb/d,
Kazakhstan with 0.18 mb/d, Ghana with 0.07 mb/d
and Congo with 0.05 mb/d.
Graph 5 - 2: Annual supply changes for selected
countries in 2017*
In constrast, oil supply in 2017 is mainly expected to contract in Mexico by 0.23 mb/d, China by 0.11 mb/d,
Azerbaijan by 0.06 mb/d, in Oman and Russia by 0.04 mb/d each, and in Egypt, Colombia and Vietnam by
0.03 mb/d each (
Graph 5 - 2
In 2H17, non-OPEC supply is predicted to show milder growth of 0.20 mb/d compared to 1H17, due to lower
expected oil production from the FSU, China, Other Asia and OECD Europe (
Table 5 - 2
). However, higher
output from OECD Americas, OECD Asia Pacific, Latin America and Africa is anticipated in 2H17. The main
factors for higher growth in these regions are the current improving price environment, which is for example
more suitable for shale producers; and seasonal higher output for instance in Canada (
Graphs 5 - 4 and
5 - 5
-0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10
Other OECD Europe
Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.
-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Note: * 2017 = Estimate.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.