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World Oil Supply

42

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

In OECD Americas, the supply forecast in Canada

was revised up for the current year by 0.07 mb/d,

while the US and Mexico’s production forecast were

revised down. The Canadian liquids production

forecast for 2018 was also revised up by 0.04 mb/d

to average 0.23 mb/d, y-o-y. In OECD Europe,

Norwegian oil production for 2018 was revised

down as was the forecast for Australia.

Nevertheless, OECD supply growth in 2018

remains at 0.9 mb/d.

In Developing Countries (DCs), Brazil’s production

forecast was revised down in 2017 and 2018,

following the slowdown in expected growth in 2Q17

and 3Q17, but at the same time, the supply forecast

for Colombia for both years was revised up due to

higher-than-expected actual production in the past

three quarters. Moreover, India’s supply forecast

was also adjusted down for 2018. Following the

upward revisions in China’s supply forecast for

3Q18 and 4Q18, a lesser decline is expected for

Chinese production in 2018.

Graph 5 - 1: MOMR Nov 17/Oct 17 revisions in

2017* and 2018* annual supply changes

Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2017

The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2017

has been revised downward by 0.02 mb/d since last

month’s assessment to 0.65 mb/d, to average

57.67 mb/d. While the supply forecast for Canada

and Colombia has improved, expected growth in

the US, Mexico, Norway, UK, India, Brazil and FSU

others has been adjusted down. Non-OPEC

preliminary oil supply in October rose by 0.52 mb/d

m-o-m, mainly in Mexico, Norway, UK, Malaysia,

Brazil, Congo, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and China

while part of this incremental output in October was

offset by declines in the US, Canada and Ghana to

average 57.60 mb/d.

The US remains the key driver of non-OPEC supply

growth, adding 0.59 mb/d to non-OPEC production

in 2017, supported by other countries such as;

Canada with 0.26 mb/d, Brazil with 0.18 mb/d,

Kazakhstan with 0.18 mb/d, Ghana with 0.07 mb/d

and Congo with 0.05 mb/d.

Graph 5 - 2: Annual supply changes for selected

countries in 2017*

In constrast, oil supply in 2017 is mainly expected to contract in Mexico by 0.23 mb/d, China by 0.11 mb/d,

Azerbaijan by 0.06 mb/d, in Oman and Russia by 0.04 mb/d each, and in Egypt, Colombia and Vietnam by

0.03 mb/d each (

Graph 5 - 2

).

In 2H17, non-OPEC supply is predicted to show milder growth of 0.20 mb/d compared to 1H17, due to lower

expected oil production from the FSU, China, Other Asia and OECD Europe (

Table 5 - 2

). However, higher

output from OECD Americas, OECD Asia Pacific, Latin America and Africa is anticipated in 2H17. The main

factors for higher growth in these regions are the current improving price environment, which is for example

more suitable for shale producers; and seasonal higher output for instance in Canada (

Graphs 5 - 4 and

5 - 5

).

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

-0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10

US

Canada

Mexico

Norway

UK

Other OECD Europe

Australia

India

Brazil

Colombia

China

mb/d

2018

2017

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

-0.23

-0.11

-0.06

-0.04

-0.04

0.07

0.18

0.18

0.26

0.59

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Mexico

China

Azerbaijan

Russia

Oman

Ghana

Kazakhstan

Brazil

Canada

US

mb/d

Note: * 2017 = Estimate.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Non-OPEC

supply growth

2017/16

0.65 mb/d