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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

41

World Oil Supply

World oil supply in October increased by 0.53 mb/d m-o-m from the previous MOMR to average 96.71 mb/d,

representing an increase of 0.17 mb/d y-o-y.

Preliminary non-OPEC oil supply, including OPEC NGLs, was up by 0.68 mb/d m-o-m in October to average

64.12 mb/d. For 2017, non-OPEC supply is estimated to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017 to average

57.67 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. While the oil supply

forecast in the OECD Americas was revised up by 16 tb/d, oil supply in OECD Europe, Other Asia and

Latin America was revised down by 40 tb/d. The non-OPEC oil supply forecast for 2018 was also revised

down by 0.09 mb/d to average 58.54 mb/d, with growth revised down by 0.07 mb/d to 0.87 mb/d, y-o-y.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.17 mb/d

y-o-y. In 2018, production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d.

In October 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to

average 32.59 mb/d.

Monthly revisions on non-OPEC supply growth forecast

Table 5 - 1: Non-OPEC supply forecast comparison in 2017* and 2018*, mb/d

According to the latest data up to the end of October, particularly the quarterly supply development in 3Q17,

the forecast for non-OPEC oil supply in

2017

was revised down by 23 tb/d to 57.67 mb/d, to now show

growth of 0.65 mb/d y-o-y. The non-OPEC oil supply forecast for

2018

was also revised down in absolute

terms by 0.09 mb/d to average 58.54 mb/d, and growth revised down by 0.07 mb/d to 0.87 mb/d. Any

changes in the production forecast of the non-OPEC countries in 2017 and the next year are based on the

historical production progress, oil field developments, periodical and unexpected maintenance, unexpected

outages due to weather and disruptions and finally new start-ups and production expansion plans.

Change

Change

2017

2017/16

2018

2018/17

OECD Americas

21.23

0.62

22.10

0.88

OECD Europe

3.84

0.03

3.86

0.03

OECD Asia Pacific

0.40

-0.02

0.43

0.03

Total OECD

25.46

0.62

26.39

0.93

Other Asia

3.64

-0.08

3.59

-0.05

Latin America

5.23

0.12

5.36

0.14

Middle East

1.24

-0.04

1.19

-0.05

Africa

1.85

0.06

1.90

0.04

Total DCs

11.96

0.06

12.03

0.08

FSU

13.94

0.08

13.93

-0.01

Other Europe

0.13

0.00

0.13

0.00

China

3.98

-0.11

3.83

-0.15

Non-OPEC production

55.47

0.64

56.31

0.84

Processing gains

2.21

0.01

2.23

0.03

Non-OPEC supply

57.67

0.65

58.54

0.87

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Region