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World Oil Demand

40

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Brazil

Brazilian

oil demand grew for the fifth consecutive month in September 2017, albeit at a lower rate than in

previous months. Oil demand data indicates an increase of 18 tb/d y-o-y, to reach 2.70 mb/d of total product

demand. The slower growth is attributed to declining gasoline requirements as the product decreased for the

first time since January 2016.

Retail gasoline prices have increased during September 2017, reaching BRL 3.88 per litre and reducing the

competitiveness to ethanol, which recorded retail prices at around BRL 2.63 per litre during the same month.

Gasoline demand shed around 18 tb/d, or 2% y-o-y, while ethanol consumption also declined, but by a mere

6 tb/d, a much lower rate than the average decline during 2017 of 50 tb/d. Diesel demand increased for the

fifth consecutive month in September by 17 tb/d, or 2%, y-o-y. This rise is a result of improvements in the

overall economy as growth in various sectors such as the transportation, agriculture, construction and

industrial sectors have all contributed positively to this gain. Fuel oil demand increased the most during the

month by around 26 tb/d y-o-y, chiefly to satisfy the additional demand in the power sector.

The expectations for 2017 Brazilian oil demand remain therefore unchanged since last month, with oil

demand growth being dependent on the recovery of the country’s economy during the remaining part of the

year.

Table 4 - 7: Brazilian oil demand*, tb/d

Argentina

Oil consumption in

Argentina

show marginal growth in August 2017, gaining some 10 tb/d, or 1%, y-o-y as

all products recorded gains with the exception of diesel oil. All transportation fuels were in the positive with

jet/kerosene, diesel oil and gasoline rising by around 17% and 1%, respectively, y-o-y. Fuel oil also

registered notable growth, rising by 3% y-o-y. Total consumption reached 0.73 mb/d in August.

Looking forward, the risks for oil demand potential for the remainder of 2017 continued to be to the upside,

as economic conditions in Brazil and other countries in the region are anticipated to improve as compared to

the recent past. In 2018, projections are largely dependent on the foreseen improvement in the overall

economy. Consequently, oil demand should improve, also given the relatively low base of this year. In terms

of products, diesel oil and gasoline will have higher growth potential and are expected to fuel the industrial

and transportation sectors.

Latin American oil demand

is anticipated to decline by 47 tb/d in 2017. In 2018, oil demand growth is

forecast at 85 tb/d.

Sep 17

Sep 16

tb/d

%

LPG

236

238

-2

-1.0

Naphtha

145

143

2

1.4

Gasoline

734

752

-18

-2.4

Jet/kerosene

114

113

1

1.0

Diesel oil

1,018

1,001

17

1.7

Fuel oil

118

92

26

27.9

Other products

337

343

-6

-1.9

Total

2,702

2,683

18

0.7

Change 2017/2016

Sources: JODI, Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas Natural e Biocombustiveis and OPEC Secretariat.

Note: * = Inland deliveries.