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World Oil Demand

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

39

Saudi Arabia

In

Saudi Arabia

, September 2017 oil demand flipped into positive territory to grow by 0.29 tb/d, or 11%,

y-o-y, and stand at 2.81 mb/d. However, the picture remained negative on a cumulative basis, with data from

January – September suggesting a decline of about 28 tb/d, or 1%, y-o-y. Looking at the product categories

shows a mixed performance, with direct crude oil for the purpose of power generation, fuel oil, gasoline and

jet/kerosene recording positive gains, while diesel oil and LPG demand declined. Direct crude for burning

increased by 0.17 mb/d, or 35%, y-o-y, to stand at 0.66 mb/d in September, on the back of expansion

projects of the master gas system that supports industry and utilities, in addition to the low y-o-y base line of

comparison. Moreover, jet/kerosene, gasoline and fuel oil improved at various magnitudes by 16%, 7% and

9% respectively, y-o-y. On the other hand, diesel oil declined by around 14% y-o-y as a result of less

consumption in the transportation and industrial sectors.

Iraq

Oil demand figures for the month of September 2017 in

Iraq

showed a slight improvement of 21 tb/d or 3%

y-o-y, despite a mixed performance among product categories. While LPG, gasoline and fuel oil showed

increases, naphtha and jet/kerosene declined.

Kuwait and UAE

Oil requirements also increased in

Kuwait

and the

UAE

by 3% and 2%, respectively, y-o-y as growth in the

transportation fuels appeared to be the main source of support in both countries.

Going forward, expectations for the remainder of 2017 appear to be slightly tilted to the downside as the high

level of substitution as well as slower economic indicators weigh on demand growth potential in the region.

In 2018, oil demand growth is expected to gain momentum over the levels experienced in the current year,

mainly as a result of assumed improvements in the economy. On the other hand, geopolitical concerns as

well as a high level of substitution are assumed to contribute negatively to demand growth in 2018.

For 2017,

Middle East oil demand

is expected to rise by 96 tb/d, while oil demand in 2018 is projected to

increase by similar levels to 2017.

Latin America

Graph 4 - 13: Latin American oil demand,

y-o-y change

Graph 4 - 14: Brazilian gasoline demand,

y-o-y change

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

tb/d

tb/d

Historical range

Historical average

2016

2017

Sources: Joint Organisations Data Initiative, national and

OPEC Secretariat.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

tb/d

Sources: Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas e Biocombustiveis

of Brazil, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and

OPEC Secretariat.