World Oil Demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017
According to the latest available data, September 2017
Chinese oil demand
growth registered significant
gains y-o-y, with demand growth estimated at more than 0.70 mb/d and total consumption reaching
12.2 mb/d. Increasing gasoline and jet fuel requirements for the transportation sector, in combination with
rising LPG and fuel oil demand, accounted for the bulk of these gains.
LPG demand leaped strongly to reach 1.78 mb/d as propane dehydrogenation capacity (PDH) plants’
margins were healthy enough to increase their utilization rates. Additionally, two plants (Dongming Qianhai
and Guangxi Yuchai Chemical) with a total LPG intake of around 0.7 mtpy have commenced operations in
September, further boosting requirements.
Gasoline demand was higher by a staggering 0.24 mb/d y-o-y with support from healthy sport utility vehicle
(SUV) sales. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), total vehicle sales in
September increased by around 5.4% y-o-y, resulting in higher y-t-d sales up to September by around 5.5%
as compared to the same period last year. Passenger car sales increased in September by 2.7% y-o-y
slightly lower than the growth seen a month earlier at 4.1% y-o-y. Commercial vehicle sales, on the other
hand, rose substantially in September, up by 24.3% y-o-y. Cumulatively with data up to September, more
than 21 million units were sold in 2017.
Diesel oil demand increased in September compared with the same month a year earlier by around
0.24 m/d, or 9%, y-o-y, mostly due to better-than-expected industrial activities, the end of the fishing ban and
easing of environmental and safety checks. Jet fuel demand surged in September, rising by around 63 tb/d,
or around 10%, y-o-y, mainly a result of higher-than-expected air travel during the month.
Graph 4 - 7: Chinese apparent oil demand,
Graph 4 - 8: Chinese diesel oil and gasoline
demand, y-o-y change
, projections for oil demand development in China are at higher than in the previous month’s report
based on very strong data for September. In
oil demand growth is foreseen rising firmly, albeit at a
lower level than in the current year. The transportation sector will continue to show robust growth, supporting
gasoline and jet fuel oil. The petrochemical sector is forecast to continue growing as new PDH plants are
expected be commissioned in 2018, supporting LPG demand growth. Conversely, a continuation of fuel
quality programmes targeting fewer emissions, further usage of new digital applications/software promoting
vehicle/bicycle sharing and the ongoing fuel substitution with natural gas and coal are expected to limit
demand growth in 2018.
Chinese oil demand
is projected to grow by 0.46 mb/d in 2017 and is forecast to grow by 0.41 mb/d in
Sources: Argus Global Markets, China OGP (Xinhua News
Agency), Facts Global Energy, JODI, National Bureau of
Statistics of China and OPEC Secretariat.
Sources: Facts Global Energy, China OGP (Xinhua News
Agency), Argus Global Markets, JODI, National Bureau of
Statistics, China and OPEC Secretariat.