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World Oil Demand

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

35

The negative overall Japanese year-to-date oil demand growth in 2017 is generally in line with developments

in the main economic indicators in the country and is expected to continue during the remainder of 2017 and

in 2018. Additional downside risks for 2018 are possible further declines in fuel oil and crude direct burning

demand, which may be partially offset by additional volumes of oil required for the country’s flourishing

petrochemical industry.

Table 4 - 5: Japanese domestic sales, tb/d

South Korea

In

South Korea

, oil demand in August 2017was bearish for the first month since May 2015, registering a

y-o-y decline of 0.05 mb/d, or 1.7%. Diesel oil usage and fuel oil requirements in the industrial sector,

together with gasoline demand in the transportation sector, took the lion share of the overall declines. Solid

increases have nevertheless been observed in the demand for naphtha during the same month, y-o-y.

The outlook for South Korean oil demand during the remainder of 2017 and in 2018 remains positive with

risks skewed to the upside.

Australia

With available data up to August 2017, year-to-date oil demand appears bullish in

Australia

showing growth

of 0.10 mb/d, or 10.5%, with the most gains seen for diesel, in line with the booming country’s mining sector.

OECD Asia Pacific oil demand

is expected to grow by 40 tb/d in 2017, while it is projected to marginally

contract in 2018, y-o-y.

Non-OECD

Based on the latest available data, oil demand growth in the

non-OECD regions

was adjusted higher by

around 45 tb/d in 2017, reflecting better-than-expected data in various countries in the region.

China

saw an upward revision by 0.17 mb/d in 3Q17 and 50 tb/d in the 4Q17, accounting for better-than-

expected demand by the industrial, petrochemical and transportation sectors in the country. For 2018, oil

demand growth projections were adjusted higher by 60 tb/d as compared to last month’s assessment, in line

with the most recent economic outlook for China.

In

Other Asia

, oil demand growth was adjusted higher by 30 tb/d in 3Q17, mainly reflecting better-than-

expected oil demand developments in India during September and in Taiwan, Malaysia and Hong Kong

during the month of August. For 2018, oil demand growth projections were adjusted higher by 20 tb/d as

compared to last month’s assessment, in line with improving expectations for Indian oil demand picture.

In

Africa

, in 2018, oil demand growth projections were adjusted higher by 20 tb/d as compared to last

month’s assessment, in line with improving economic projection for several countries in the region including

Morocco and Egypt.

Sep 17

Sep 16

tb/d

%

LPG

384

393

-9

-2.2

Naphtha

765

711

54

7.6

Gasoline

900

906

-6

-0.7

Jet/kerosene

390

364

26

7.1

Diesel oil

777

772

5

0.7

Fuel oil

285

289

-4

-1.5

Other products

313

356

-43

-12.2

Total

3,814

3,791

23

0.6

Change 2017/2016

Sources: JODI, Ministry of Energy and Trade and Industry of Japan and OPEC Secretariat.