World Oil Demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017
The overall risks for the development of US oil demand for the remaining part of 2017 and 2018 can be seen
as skewed to the upside, mainly as result of strong anticipated economic growth and the support of the low
oil price environment; nevertheless there are also factors that may push oil demand to the downside with fuel
substitution and developments in vehicle efficiencies being the principal ones.
Mexico’s oil demand
shrank in September 2017 by 0.04 mb/d, or 2.0%, y-o-y, representing the tenth-
monthly decline in a row, and thus painting an overall bearish year-to-date picture during 2017. The bulk of
oil demand losses during September 2017 originated in gas/diesel oil and gasoline, despite the low oil price
environment. These have been partly offset by rising requirements for LPG, jet/kerosene and residual fuel
oil. The risks for 2017 and 2018 Mexican oil demand remain skewed to the downside, despite the projected
positive development of the overall economy, to a large extent as a result of anticipated fuel substitution.
, August 2017 saw a decline y-o-y. Small gains in naphtha, gasoline, gas/diesel oil and residual
fuel oil have been more than offset by declines in LPG and jet/kerosene, with LPG being affected by fuel
substitution. The prospects for Canadian oil demand in 2017 and 2018 are slightly positive as a result of a
growing economy, while existing downside risks concern vehicle efficiencies and fuel substitution.
OECD Americas oil demand
is expected to grow by 0.24 mb/d, as compared to 2016. 2018 OECD
Americas’ oil demand is projected to increase by slightly less compared with the current year, growing by
0.20 mb/d y-o-y.
August 2017 data showed weak
European oil demand
growth y-o-y, falling slightly and following strong
months of May and June 2017. The majority of the main oil consuming countries in the region, with exception
to Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium, saw oil demand declines y-o-y. Nevertheless, the implied
year-to-date increase in European oil demand is substantial at 0.2 mb/d y-o-y and is in line with the region’s
strongly increasing economy.
Graph 4 - 3: OECD Europe oil demand,
Graph 4 - 4: UK diesel oil demand,
The growth in oil demand is dominated by bullish gas/diesel oil and gasoline demand in the road
transportation sector as well as jet/kerosene and naphtha requirements for the aviation and petrochemical
sectors. During August 2017, the positive momentum in auto sales continued to highlight another increase of
more than 5% and with year-to-date growth of almost 5%. According to data from the European Automobile
Manufacturers Association (ACEA), most major auto markets – Italy Spain, France and Germany –
Sources: National, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and
Sources: Joint Organisations Data Initiative, UK Department of
Energy Climate and Change and OPEC Secretariat.