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World Economy

26

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Graph 3 - 31: Saudi Arabia’s manufacturing PMIs Graph 3 - 32: Saudi Arabia’s inflation

In

Nigeria

, inflation was slightly lower in September at 15.98%, the lowest since May 2016 and easing for the

sixth consecutive month. Prices of housing and utilities increased at slower pace, while food and transport

prices rose at faster rate. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate intact in September at 14%. The

economy of Nigeria was out of recession in 2Q17 following five quarters of recession. The economy

registered 0.6% y-o-y growth in 2Q17, from a contraction of 0.5% y-o-y in the previous quarter, according to

the National Bureau of Statistics. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI improved in October, confirming the

economic rebalancing and return to growth territory. The index rose to 55.8 in October, up from 54.9 in the

previous month. The reading of October is the highest in 34 months, suggesting a strong start of the fourth

quarter of the year. This improvement was attributed to the notable acceleration in new orders and output. In

addition, new orders from abroad went up by the highest rate in more than three years. The survey also

showed that job creation continued to increase in October for the sixth consecutive month so as to meet

rising output requirements. The buying activity witnessed a sharp expansion in anticipation of demand

acceleration. In October, buying activity grew by the fastest pace since November 2016.

Graph 3 - 33: Nigeria’s manufacturing PMIs

Graph 3 - 34: Nigeria’s inflation

In

IR Iran

, GDP posted strong growth of 16.0% y-o-y in 1Q17 on the back of sharp increase in net exports

and private consumption. Net exports, which account for an average of 9% of GDP, accelerated by 48%

y-o-y. The non-oil exports value in dollars increased by around 12% y-o-y, while quantities of crude oil

exports soared by nearly 30% y-o-y over the same period. Furthermore, another notable support to growth

came from private consumption which makes up 43% of GDP, which grew by 6.3% y-o-y in 1Q17,

highlighting the second-fastest pace of growth since 3Q11. Investment that makes up nearly one fourth of

GDP also rose in 1Q17, by 3.1% y-o-y; whereas government consumption was nearly flat at just a 0.3%

y-o-y increase. Consumer price inflation has been on a downward trend since May 2017, falling from 12.7%

y-o-y in April 2017 to 8.4% in October.

55.6

45

50

55

60

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17

Oct 17

Index

Sources: Emirates NBD, IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

-0.1

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sep 17

Sources: General Authority for Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

55.8

45

50

55

60

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17

Oct 17

Index

Sources: IHS Markit, Stanbic IBTC Bank and Haver Analytics.

15.98

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sep 17

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y