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World Economy

22

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

The Nikkei

Services PMI

in India rose to 51.7 in October, from 50.7 in the preceding month. It was the

second straight month of expansion in services activity after the sector was impacted by the GST introduced

in July. The Markit composite PMI in India increased to 51.30 in October from 51.10 a month earlier.

Graph 3 - 21: India’s PMIs

Graph 3 - 22: India’s industrial production

India’s

GDP growth

expectation in this month was revised down to 6.8% from 6.9% for 2017 and the

forecast for 2018 was also revised down to 7.4% from 7.5%, in part due to a slowing in the global trade

recovery and in part because of the disruption to manufacturing caused by the demonetisation/GST. Latest

data confirms that activity in India has largely recovered from the demonetisation, while the impact of the

GST implementation was transitory.

China

China’s real

GDP growth

eased slightly to 6.8% y-o-y in 3Q17, as exports and investment decreased,

although consumption growth remained relatively stable. However, industrial production, fixed asset

investment and retail sales ended 3Q17 on a positive note, with growth picking up somewhat in September,

following a slowdown in the previous two months, indicating solid momentum going into 4Q17. China's

industrial output grew by 6.7% y-o-y in 3Q17, up by 0.7 percentage points (pp) compared with the same

period of last year.

Fixed-asset investment

increased by 7.5% from January to September, down from

8.2% in the same period of last year. Retail sales, meanwhile, expanded by 10.4 % in 3Q17, unchanged

from a year ago. Long-term economic growth was a welcome tailwind for the Communist Party of China

(CPC) which gathered to map policy for the next five years.

Graph 3 - 23: China’s GDP growth

Graph 3 - 24: China’s GDP breakdown

51.3

51.7

50.3

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

Index

Composite

Services business activity

Manufacturing

Sources: Nikkei, IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

-30

-15

0

15

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Total IP Manufacturing IP Food products IP

Sources: Central Statistical Organisation of India and

Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

6.9

6.9 6.8

7.3

6.9

6.7

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

2014

2015

2016

2017

Sources: China's National Bureau of Statistics and

Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

4.4

2.3

0.3

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1Q 14

2Q 14

3Q 14

4Q 14

1Q 15

2Q 15

3Q 15

4Q 15

1Q 16

2Q 16

3Q 16

4Q 16

1Q 17

2Q 17

3Q 17

Net exports of goods and services

Gross capital formation

Final consumption expenditure

Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics and

Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y