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World Economy

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

19

In October 2017, business conditions in the

manufacturing sector

continued to improve due to an ongoing

upturn in new orders and production which has been reflected in the first build up in manufacturing jobs in

over two and a half years. The IHS Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high of 51.2 in

October, up from 50.9 a month earlier. The services sector regressed into the contraction territory in October,

after short-lived expansion in September. The IHS Markit Brazil

Services

JPMI Business Activity Index

registered 48.8 in October, down from 50.7 a month earlier, reflecting subdued consumer confidence and

downbeat expectations. The survey showed that output returned to contraction as a result of a drop in new

orders.

Graph 3 - 11: Brazil’s manufacturing and services

PMIs

Graph 3 - 12: Brazil’s consumer confidence index

Following the strong start of 3Q17, in terms of trade, inflation, unemployment, services, manufacturing and

consumer confidence, together with better prospects of political stability, Brazil’s GDP is expected to grow by

0.7% and 1.5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Russia

Russia’s

trade surplus

increased from $4.6 billion in August 2016 to $6.6 billion in August 2017, a 43%

y-o-y increase.

Exports

increased by 25% to $29 billion in August 2017 y-o-y, while

imports

rose by a

slower rate of 21%. Over the period January through August 2017, the trade surplus registered $70.2 billion

vs $55.5 billion in the same period of 2016.

GDP

posted growth of 2.5% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 0.5% growth

in the previous quarter, representing the fastest rate of growth since 3Q12.

Graph 3 - 13: Russia’s inflation vs. interest rate

Graph 3 - 14: Russia’s PMIs

51.2

48.8

42

44

46

48

50

52

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

Index

Sources: IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

Services PMI

Manufacturing PMI

88.2

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

Index

Sources: Fundação Getúlio Vargas and Haver Analytics.

2.7

8.25

2

4

6

8

10

12

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

%

Sources: Federal State Statistics Service, Central Bank of

Russia and Haver Analytics.

Inflation rate

Interest rate

51.1

53.9

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

Index

Sources: IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

Services PMI

Manufacturing PMI