Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  26 / 103 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 26 / 103 Next Page
Page Background

World Economy

18

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

Non-OECD

BRICs

Table 3 - 2: Summary of macroeconomic performance of BRIC countries, 2017-2018*

Brazil

Brazil’s

trade

surplus increased by 126% y-o-y to $5.2 billion in October, from $2.3 billion in the same month

a year earlier, marking the largest surplus ever for the month of October.

Exports

to China went up by nearly

28% y-o-y, while sales to the US rose by 23% y-o-y. Total exports rose by 37.6% y-o-y, which is the largest

gain for exports since June 2011 and amounted to $18.9 billion in October, on account of iron ore, crude oil,

soy beans, sugar, and corn grain.

Imports

, on the other hand, increased by 20% y-o-y in October to

$13.7 billion, led by diesel, coal, gasoline, crude oil, and natural gas. Most imports came from China, which

increased by around 24% y-o-y. Trade was a supportive factor behind the Brazilian economy’s return to

growth in 2Q17 as exports increased 2.5% and imports dropped 3.3% y-o-y.

Inflation

continued its easing trend, reaching its lowest ever at 1.6% y-o-y in September, slightly lower than

1.7% seen a month earlier. Accordingly, the central bank lowered its benchmark

interest rate

by 25 basis

points in October, to now stand at 7.50%. The

unemployment rate

posted its fifth back-to-back fall in

September, registering 12.4% vs. 12.6% a month earlier. The

consumer confidence index

improved in

October to 88.2, from 84.3 in the previous month.

Graph 3 - 9: Brazil’s inflation vs. interest rate

Graph 3 - 10: Brazil’s unemployment rate

2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018

Brazil

0.7

1.5

3.4

3.6 -10.1 -33.8

-8.0

-7.0 78.1 84.0

Russia

1.8

1.8

3.8

4.0 39.8 26.1

-2.1

-1.3 11.8 12.6

India

6.8

7.4

3.3

4.4 -41.9 -44.8

-3.5

-3.5 50.4 49.6

China

6.8

6.5

1.5

1.8 97.9 174.5

-3.9

-4.4 18.6 21.7

Sources: Consensus Economics, Economic Intelligence Unit, Financial Times, OPEC Secretariat and Oxford.

Note: * 2017 = Estimate and 2018 = Forecast.

GDP growth rate

Consumer price

index,

% change y-o-y

Current account

balance, US$ bn

Government

fiscal balance,

% of GDP

Net public debt,

% of GDP

1.6

7.5

0

5

10

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Oct 17

National consumer price index (LHS)

Selic rate (RHS)

Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Instituto Brasileiro de

Geografia e Estatística and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

% per annum

12.4

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

%

Sources: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and

Trading Economics.