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Crude Oil Price Movements

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2017

3

Middle Eastern spot components

, Murban and Qatar Marine, saw their values improving by $2.45, or

4.5%, to $57.39/b and $2.23, or 4.2%, to $55.14/b, respectively. Spot premiums for Middle East crude for

year-end loading have hit multi-month highs, spurred by robust demand in Asia. Asian buyers continued to

snap up spot cargoes over the month after Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company lowered

supplies, and as they both prepared to ramp up heating oil production for peak winter demand.

On 10 November, the ORB was up at $61.91/b, $6.41 above the October average.

The oil futures market

Oil futures

improved further in October to levels not seen since summer 2015, with ICE Brent nearing $58/b

and NYMEX WTI above $50/b. Both futures contracts continue to be supported by increasing evidence that

the oil market is heading smoothly toward rebalancing, lower crude oil stocks, healthy demand and

geopolitical tensions.

Earlier in the month, oil prices rose sharply as signs that Saudi Arabia and Russia would continue their

production adjustment through next year pushed the US benchmark back above $50/b. in the following days,

oil futures fell in one of the most bearish weeks in months to ending Brent crude's longest multi-week rally in

16 months as oversupply concerns reappeared with producers having started to hedge future drilling. By the

end of the 1

st

decade of the month, oil prices again inched higher again, propped up by OPEC comments

signalling the possibility of continued action to restore market balance in the long term.

Oil prices continued to rise, supported by comments from OPEC and trading companies that the market is

rebalancing after years of oversupply. Oil prices increased even more as OPEC forecast higher demand for

2018, amid both US crude production and inventories declining, pointing towards a tightening market, and

heightened tensions in Kurdistan. By mid-month, oil prices closed higher on bullish news from strong

Chinese oil imports and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Towards the end of the month, oil prices jumped sharply, with global benchmark Brent crude rising above

$60/b, on support for extending the decision of the Declaration of Cooperation and as the dollar retreated

from three-month peaks.

ICE Brent closed the month at its highest level since July 2015, above $60/b and NYMEX WTI closed at a

peak not seen since February, near $55/b.

ICE Brent

averaged October $2.13, or 3.8% higher, at $57.65/b, while

NYMEX WTI

increased $1.72, or

3.4%, to average $51.59/b. Y-t-d, ICE Brent is $9.25, or 21.1%, higher at $53.04/b, while NYMEX WTI rose

by $7.49, or 17.8%, to $49.60/b.

Table 1 - 2: Crude oil futures, US$/b

Crude oil futures prices improved in the second week of November. On 10 November, ICE Brent stood at

$63.52/b and NYMEX WTI at $56.74/b.

Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish bets on crude oil prices to the highest in more than six

months, exchange data showed at the end of October, as prices surged amid rising support to extend the

OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries’ Declaration of Cooperation.

Sep 17 Oct 17

Oct/Sep

%

2016

2017

NYMEX WTI

49.88

51.59

1.72

3.4

42.37

49.60

ICE Brent

55.51

57.65

2.13

3.8

43.98

53.04

Transatlantic spread

5.64

6.05

0.42

7.4

1.61

3.44

Note: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

Change

Year-to-date

Sources: CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange and OPEC Secretariat.