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Balance of Supply and Demand

88

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

Balance of Supply and Demand

Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d,

around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, about

0.2 mb/d higher than in 2017.

Balance of supply and demand in 2017

Based on the current global oil supply/demand balance,

OPEC crude in 2017

was revised up by 0.2 mb/d

from the previous report driven mainly by the upward revision in demand. Within the quarters, the second

quarter was revised up by 0.3 mb/d, while the first, third and fourth quarters were revised up each by

0.2 mb/d. As a result, OPEC crude is estimated at 32.7 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/d from the

2016 level. The first and the second quarters increased by 0.9 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively, while the

third and fourth quarters are expected to grow by 0.3 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d, respectively.

Table 10 - 1: Supply/demand balance for 2017*, mb/d

Balance of supply and demand in 2018

Similarly

, OPEC crude in 2018

was revised up by 0.4 mb/d from the previous month. Within the quarters,

the first quarter was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, while the second, third and fourth quarters were revised up by

0.5 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d, respectively. OPEC crude is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, which is around

0.2 mb/d higher than the 2017 level. The first quarter is expected to increase by 0.4 mb/d, while the second

and the third quarters are expected to increase by 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively. The fourth quarter is

estimated to remain unchanged compared to the same quarter in 2017.

Change

2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 2017/16

(a) World oil demand

95.35 95.54 96.05 97.57 97.91 96.77 1.42

Non-OPEC supply

57.02 57.87 57.56 57.53 58.23 57.80 0.78

OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals

6.14 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42 6.31 0.17

(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs 63.16 64.08 63.82 63.88 64.64 64.10 0.94

Difference (a-b)

32.19 31.46 32.23 33.70 33.27 32.67 0.48

OPEC crude oil production

32.65 32.13 32.29

Balance

0.46 0.67 0.06

Note: * 2017 = Forecast.

Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.