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Stock Movements

84

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

Table 9 - 2: EU-15 plus Norway’s total oil stocks, mb

US

Preliminary data for August shows that

US total commercial oil stocks

fell by 6 mb, for the third

consecutive month to stand at 1,310.4 mb. At this level, they were 57 mb, or 4.2%, lower than the same

period a year ago, but 127 mb, or 10.8%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components,

crude fell by 19.5 mb, while product stocks rose by 13.6 mb, m-o-m.

Graph 9 - 3: US weekly commercial crude oil

inventories

Graph 9 - 4: US weekly gasoline inventories

Across the months of July and August, there were nine consecutive weeks of crude commercial oil stock

draws in the US. This amounts to a total drawdown of over 51 mb, compared to the same period in 2016

when US crude oil stock levels were relatively flat, US commercial stocks rose in the week ending

1 September by 4.6 mb to stand at 462.4 mb. At this level, they were 21.3 mb, or 4.4%, below the level of

last year at the same time, but still 79.5 mb, or 21%, above the latest five-year average.

The build in commercial crude stocks was driven by lower refinery crude runs as a result of

Hurricane Harvey. Indeed, US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.5 mb/d during the week ending

1 September 2017, about 3.3 mb/d less than the previous week. Refineries operated at 79.7% compared to

96.6% last week. Crude oil imports fell by 820,000 b/d to average 7.1 mb/d and exports also was off by

750,000 b/d to just 150,000 b/d. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 0.8 mb w-o-w during the

week ending 1 September, to stand at 58.0 mb.

In contrast,

total product stocks

rose by 13.6 mb in August m-o-m to stand at 848.1 mb. At this level, they

were 36 mb, or 4.1%, down from the level seen at the same time in 2016, but 48 mb, or 6.0%, above the

seasonal average. Within products, propylene and other unfinished products rose, while major products

experienced stock draws.

Change

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Jul 17/Jun 17

Jul 16

Crude oil

490.3

487.1

490.1

3.0

491.9

Gasoline

117.9

115.9

114.4

-1.5

119.0

Naphtha

25.5

26.4

27.3

0.9

23.7

Middle distillates

452.0

442.0

445.1

3.1

455.8

Fuel oils

68.3

69.0

69.0

-0.1

77.1

Total products

663.7

653.4

655.7

2.4

675.5

Total

1,154.0

1,140.4

1,145.8

5.3

1,167.4

Sources: Argus and Euroilstock.

300

350

400

450

500

550

300

350

400

450

500

550

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

mb

mb

2015

2016

2017

Average 2012-2016

Historical range

2012-2016

Sources: US Energy Information Administration and

OPEC Secretariat.

Week

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

mb

mb

2015

2016

2017

Average 2012-2016

Historical range

2012-2016

Sources: US Energy Information Administration and

OPEC Secretariat.

Week