World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
China’s oil supply
declined by 0.04 mb/d in July to 3.97 mb/d, including 3.83 mb/d of crude oil, according to
data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Crude oil production declined in 1Q17 and 2Q17
by 0.24 mb/d and 0.13 mb/d y-o-y, while China’s leading state companies PetroChina and Sinopec continued
to restrain investment at the expense of crude production. For instance, PetroChina’s upstream spending in
2Q17 was down by 72% to $5 billion compared with the same quarter one year earlier. Hence, crude oil
production for the company declined by 33% to 1.7 mb/d in the same period. In general, upstream
investments in oil and gas projects have not seen sustained improvement so far this year, according to the
latest report issued in July by the Ministry of Land and Resources. In 2016, approximately $30 billion was
spent for exploration and development of oil and gas in China. However, compared with average oil supply
output declines of 0.30 mb/d, or 6.8%, last year, output in 1H17 stood at 4.02 mb/d, 4.1% below 1H16 levels,
indicating that a recovery in oil prices could help oil output rise.
Chinese crude oil output is forecast to decline by roughly 0.12 mb/d in 2017 and 0.13 mb/d in 2018.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils
The forecast for
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids
in 2017 was left unchanged, averaging
6.31 mb/d and representing growth of 0.17 mb/d. This follows last month’s upward revision of 90 tb/d
following Equatorial Guinea joining OPEC. In 2018, due to a number of planned projects, growth of
0.18 mb/d y-o-y is anticipated, with average output of 6.49 mb/d. These projects are expected to be mainly in
IR Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Table 5 - 7: OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils, 2015-2018*, mb/d
16/15 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017
17/16 2018 18/17
Total OPEC 6.04 6.14
0.10 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42
Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.
Source: OPEC Secretariat.