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World Oil Supply

58

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

China

China’s oil supply

declined by 0.04 mb/d in July to 3.97 mb/d, including 3.83 mb/d of crude oil, according to

data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Crude oil production declined in 1Q17 and 2Q17

by 0.24 mb/d and 0.13 mb/d y-o-y, while China’s leading state companies PetroChina and Sinopec continued

to restrain investment at the expense of crude production. For instance, PetroChina’s upstream spending in

2Q17 was down by 72% to $5 billion compared with the same quarter one year earlier. Hence, crude oil

production for the company declined by 33% to 1.7 mb/d in the same period. In general, upstream

investments in oil and gas projects have not seen sustained improvement so far this year, according to the

latest report issued in July by the Ministry of Land and Resources. In 2016, approximately $30 billion was

spent for exploration and development of oil and gas in China. However, compared with average oil supply

output declines of 0.30 mb/d, or 6.8%, last year, output in 1H17 stood at 4.02 mb/d, 4.1% below 1H16 levels,

indicating that a recovery in oil prices could help oil output rise.

Chinese crude oil output is forecast to decline by roughly 0.12 mb/d in 2017 and 0.13 mb/d in 2018.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils

The forecast for

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids

in 2017 was left unchanged, averaging

6.31 mb/d and representing growth of 0.17 mb/d. This follows last month’s upward revision of 90 tb/d

following Equatorial Guinea joining OPEC. In 2018, due to a number of planned projects, growth of

0.18 mb/d y-o-y is anticipated, with average output of 6.49 mb/d. These projects are expected to be mainly in

IR Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Table 5 - 7: OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils, 2015-2018*, mb/d

Change

Change

Change

2015 2016

16/15 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017

17/16 2018 18/17

Total OPEC 6.04 6.14

0.10 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42

6.31

0.17

6.49

0.18

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.