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World Oil Supply

56

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

Malaysia

Crude oil production in

Malaysia

after maintenance curbed output over the preceding two months

rebounded in June by 61 tb/d to 0.68 mb/d, while preliminary July data indicated a decline of around

0.04 mb/d. Average crude oil output registered 0.66 mb/d, unchanged compared with 1H16, but up by

0.01 mb/d compared with 2H16. Malaysian total liquids production in 1H17 registered 0.73 mb/d, 0.03 mb/d

higher than October 2016 levels. Oil production in Malaysia increased when the Malikai project started up

last December after the Declaration of Cooperation was signed with OPEC.

Indonesia

Production of crude oil in Indonesia

is estimated to have averaged 0.71 mb/d in July, a 38 tb/d decline

from a year ago. Average crude oil production was down by 22 tb/d in 1H17 compared with 2H16 and it is

expected that total liquids output in 2017 will contract by 0.02 mb/d to average 0.91 mb/d. This will be added

next year, leading to a contraction of 0.03 mb/d.

Africa

Africa’s oil supply

is projected to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 1.85 mb/d in 2017, revised down by

0.01 mb/d due to a historical revision in production data from Africa other. It is expected that oil production in

2017 will grow in the Congo by 40 tb/d to average 0.35 mb/d, in Ghana by 70 tb/d to average 0.16 mb/d, and

in Chad by 20 tb/d to average 0.13 mb/d. Production in Egypt, the Sudans, and Africa other is anticipated to

decline in 2017, while oil output in South Africa is estimated to remain unchanged over a year earlier.

For 2018, the oil supply in African non-OPEC countries is expected to grow by 70 tb/d, with the rise coming

mainly from Chad, Congo and Ghana to average 1.92 mb/d.

FSU

FSU’s oil supply

is estimated to grow by 0.15 mb/d in 2017 to average 14.01 mb/d, revised up by 50 tb/d

from the August

MOMR

. An upward revision of 0.04 mb/d was seen in Kazakhstan’s production growth in

2017 and a minor rise of 0.01 mb/d from Russia. Oil production in Azerbaijan is predicted to contract by

0.06 mb/d to average 0.79 mb/d in 2017, while the oil supply from other FSU countries will be stagnant at

0.37 mb/d. For 2018, FSU’s oil supply was revised down by 0.10 mb/d due to lower expectations for growth

in Russia and Kazakhstan of 0.06 mb/d each; other countries in the region will also decline.

Graph 5 - 21: FSU liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 22: Russia liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

180

433

161

-163

-200 -116

176

388

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

13,400

13,600

13,800

14,000

14,200

14,400

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

176

278

-47

-267

-267

-135

230

412

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

10,800

10,900

11,000

11,100

11,200

11,300

11,400

11,500

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)