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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

55

In 2018, DC’s supply is forecast to grow by 0.10 mb/d y-o-y to average 12.10 mb/d, unchanged from

previous expected growth figures, but with a change in absolute supply of 12.10 mb/d, compared with the

last

MOMR

. Oil production in Africa is expected to grow at a faster pace y-o-y (0.07 mb/d) to average

1.92 mb/d, while growth in Latin America will be slower (0.11 mb/d) to average 5.37 mb/d. The oil supply

from Other Asia and the Middle East will decline in the next by 0.04 mb/d to 3.63 mb/d and by 0.05 mb/d to

1.18 mb/d, respectively.

Latin America

Brazil

Brazilian liquids output

declined by 0.07 mb/d m-o-m in July to 3.29 mb/d. In fact, a decline in crude output

of 72 tb/d led to a lowering of crude supply to average 2.60 mb/d, weighed by maintenance at the Parque

das Baleias complex. According to Petrobras preliminary data in August, liquids supply is expected to

increase to average 3.38 mb/d. Higher output in 2H17 by 0.16 mb/d is expected compared with 1H17. Once

again, growing production in the Santos Basin offset declines from the more mature Campos Basin fields,

while production in the Campos Basin dropped by 50 tb/d m-o-m to 1.36 mb/d – a decline of 168 tb/d from

the previous year. Petrobras discovered oil in the pre-salt layer of the Campos Basin in the middle of August,

close to Marlim Sul field. This is the first commercial pre-salt oil find in the area. Onshore output also

continued to decline, shrinking by 25 tb/d, or 17%, from one year ago. Production in the Santos Basin rose

nearly 80 tb/d from a month earlier, to 1.14 mb/d in June – some 320 tb/d higher than a year earlier.

Production from Lula, in particular, contributed to gains, adding 66 tb/d m-o-m to reach a new record high of

0.76 mb/d – 244 tb/d higher than a year ago. Output at Saphinoá also increased to near record highs at

around 0.26 mb/d, 40 tb/d higher than a year earlier.

Brazil’s oil supply is expected to grow by 0.24 mb/d y-o-y to average 3.38 mb/d and for 2018 growth of

0.21 mb/d with an average supply of 3.59 mb/d is predicted.

Graph 5 - 19: Brazil liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 20: Latin America liquids supply

quarterly forecast, 2016-2018

Other Asia

The

liquids supply in the Other Asia

region is seen to contract by 0.05 mb/d in the current year to average

3.67 mb/d, revised down by 0.01 mb/d due to a base change following downward revisions in the historical

production data of Malaysia as well as an upward revision in Other Asia due to India; the other countries in

this region declined in 2017. Next year, the contraction will be 0.04 mb/d to average 3.63 mb/d and India is

expected to grow more.

370

222

167

193

235

246

203

172

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

241

143

81

149

175

149

90

48

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

4,800

4,900

5,000

5,100

5,200

5,300

5,400

5,500

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)