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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

53

Graph 5 - 15: Canada liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 16: Mexico liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Mexico

Mexican oil production

declined by 29 tb/d in July to average 2.28 mb/d, mainly owing to a decline in crude

oil of 22 tb/d to below 2.0 mb/d for the first time in more than 20 years. July’s output was lower by 0.17 mb/d

y-o-y, with the majority of declines coming from small fields. The beginning of maintenance at the

Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) field in late July also led to a higher drop in the month. The decline was expected to

worsen when maintenance continued in August. Average crude oil production in 1H17 registered at

2,016 tb/d. In June and July, the bulk of the decline stemmed from the Maloob field, which dropped by

20 tb/d from a month earlier.

For 2017 as a whole, Mexican oil output is expected to decline by 0.17 mb/d, followed by a predicted

0.16 mb/d decline in 2018.

OECD Europe

OECD Europe’s oil supply

rose by 0.11 mb/d m-o-m in July to 3.83 mb/d, though this was lower by

0.12 mb/d, y-o-y. Production in Norway and other OECD Europe, particularly Italy, rose when Eni restarted

its southern Italian Val d’Agri oil field. The oil supply for 1H17 was up by 0.04 mb/d over 1H16 to reach

3.87 mb/d. Owing to seasonal maintenance at offshore platforms, output in the region was down by

0.13 mb/d in 2Q17, while in the same period of 2016 it was above that of the current year at 0.2 mb/d. The oil

supply for 2H17 is expected to be lower by 0.11 mb/d over 1H17 due to less expected production in the UK

and Norway. Crude and condensate output from the Denmark portion of the North Sea is also forecast to fall

in 2017 and 2018, continuing a long-term trend. Production in Denmark is expected to drop by 0.01 mb/d in

both 2017 and 2018. As a whole, minor growth of 10 tb/d is anticipated for the current year; the pace will

increase next year at 0.08 mb/d.

Norway

Norway’s preliminary

production figures

for July show an average daily production of 2.00 mb/d of oil,

indicating an increase of 0.09 mb/d, m-o-m. In July, crude oil output was pegged at 1.62 mb/d – higher by

52 tb/d m-o-m, NGLs stood at 0.35 mb/d and condensate at 0.03 mb/d. The uptick in liquids, m-o-m, came

after the output was curtailed in June due to maintenance at Gullfaks. The continuation of an unplanned

outage at the Gjoa and Vega fields in the first week of the month partially offset the m-o-m gain. However,

total oil output in July compared with the previous July was down by 0.13 mb/d. At the end of the month,

Statoil and its partners started production at the Byrding field as planned. Recoverable volumes in Byrding –

an oil and gas field north of the Troll field in the North Sea – are estimated to be 11 million barrels of oil

equivalent. The field is expected to produce nearly 8 tb/d at its peak in 2017–18.

302

618

63

-198

-177

297

235

397

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

5,300

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-213

-180

-182

-117

-123

-177 -162

-186

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

200

700

1,200

1,700

2,200

2,700

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)