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World Oil Supply

52

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

Canada

Canadian oil sands output

dropped by 0.23 mb/d and 0.55 mb/d in March and April, respectively,

compared with February following wildfires at Syncrude’s Mildred Lake plant in mid-March. In May,

production saw a slight rebound by 113 tb/d m-o-m to average 2.43 mb/d. Conventional crude oil was

stagnant in April and May at 1.2 mb/d, 33 tb/d lower than in February, while NGLs production increased by

27 tb/d m-o-m to average 906 tb/d in July. As a result, Canada’s oil supply in May rose by 0.14 mb/d m-o-m

to average 4.54 mb/d. Preliminary output for 2Q17 indicated growth of 0.62 mb/d y-o-y, although most of this

was due to low output after last year’s wildfire disaster. August output is estimated at 4.77 mb/d, lower by

0.27 mb/d compared with February’s peak level. The 350 tb/d Mildred Lake plant was expected to return to

full production by August, although it is two months behind its original schedule; maintenance is planned for

later in the year. Some upgraders underwent maintenance in 3Q17, such as Scotford in July, and Horizon

starting in September.

Graph 5 - 13: Canada production by crude type

Graph 5 - 14: Canada production by crude type,

y-o-y change

On the other hand, Chinese firm CNOOC announced that the Hangingstone project commenced production

in early August. The project, located in Alberta, consists of steam-generating equipment, well pad facilities,

32 well pairs, water treatment services and bitumen flowlines. It is expected to reach a peak production rate

of approximately 20 tb/d in 2018.

Total Canadian oil supplies

are forecast to expand by 190 tb/d in both 2017 and 2018 to average

4.70 mb/d and 4.89 mb/d, respectively.

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

Aug 11

Feb 12

Aug 12

Feb 13

Aug 13

Feb 14

Aug 14

Feb 15

Aug 15

Feb 16

Aug 16

Feb 17

Aug 17

mb/d

Synthetic crude + Crude bitumen

Conventional

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

-0.50

-0.30

-0.10

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

Aug 11

Feb 12

Aug 12

Feb 13

Aug 13

Feb 14

Aug 14

Feb 15

Aug 15

Feb 16

Aug 16

Feb 17

Aug 17

mb/d

Conventional

Synthetic crude + Crude bitumen

Source: OPEC Secretariat.