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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

49

US Lower-48 states onshore crude oil output declined from a peak of 7.63 mb/d in March 2015 to 6.51 mb/d

in December 2016, but in 2017 it seen renewed momentum. In June 2017 it had grown by 475 tb/d over the

December level to average 6.98 mb/d. It is expected that Lower-48 States onshore crude oil output in 2017

will grow by 465 tb/d y-o-y to average 7.10 mb/d. US tight oil production in June grew by 0.08 mb/d, m-o-m to

average 4.67 mb/d. According to the EIA’s official data, tight crude production peaked at its highest level of

4.70 mb/d in March 2015. Tight crude output from tight horizontal wells increased in the Permian by

0.04 mb/d to average 1.83 mb/d in June and preliminary 1.88 mb in July and by 0.03 mb/d in Eagle Ford to

average 1.19 mb/d in June and preliminary 0.04 mb/d in July. Other regions were more or less stagnant or

experienced minor declines.

Graph 5 - 8: US monthly liquids production breakdown

As of June 2017, tight crude continued to grow by 514 tb/d to average 4,674 tb/d and production in Texas,

Oklahoma, Colorado and North Dakota grew from January, while US crude production has grown overall by

only 0.33 mb/d. In actuality, US shale output is being offset by large declines in Alaska, the GOM and all

other regions. US tight crude would have to exceed the level it had reached throughout the past 6 months.

Yet, in the face of stagnating rig counts, declining non-shale productions and lower oil prices, expectations

for the current year, y-o-y growth will not exceed for the whole year by more than 0.5 mb/d.

Table 5 - 5: US shale play’s production growth forecast in 2017 and 2018

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*

mb/d

Conventional crude oil

Gulf of Mexico crude

Conventional NGLs

Biofuels + Other liquids

Tight crude

Unconventional NGLs

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Sources: Energy Information Administration, Rystad Energy and OPEC Secretariat.

Conventional

sources

Unconventional

sources

Shale play

tb/d

Production

Y-o-y change

Production

Y-o-y change

Permian

1,872

410

2,322

450

Bakken shale

1,000

-20

1,024

24

Niobrara

318

23

353

35

Eagle Ford

1,213

40

1,293

80

Other plays

347

47

377

30

Total

4,750

500

5,369

619

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

2017*

2018*