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World Oil Supply

48

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

OECD

OECD liquids production

in 2017 was revised down by 31 tb/d, mainly due to a downward revision in

OECD Americas, which is now expected to increase by 0.64 mb/d to average 25.48 mb/d in 2017. For 2018,

OECD supply is forecast to average 26.46 mb/d, representing a growth of 0.99 mb/d, mainly from

OECD Americas.

OECD Americas

OECD Americas’ oil supply

in 2017 is predicted to average 21.25 mb/d. This represents an increase of

0.65 mb/d y-o-y. The oil supply forecast was revised down by 48 tb/d this month owing to the downward

adjustment of historical data in 2Q17 and the downward revision in 3Q and 4Q forecast for 2017. Oil supply

in the US and Canada will grow while a contraction is expected in Mexico. In 2018, supply in the

OECD Americas is expected to grow by 0.87 mb/d to average 22.12 mb/d. The US and Canadian oil supply

is expected to grow, while a continuation of annual decline in Mexico is anticipated for next year.

US

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), monthly crude oil production averaged

9.10 mb/d in June 2017, representing a decline of 73 tb/d over May, while US NGLs were up by 31 tb/d to

average 3.75 mb/d, mainly from unconventional sources. Oil production increased in Texas (+13 tb/d) and

Oklahoma (+15 tb/d), whereas output in Alaska (-45 tb/d), the Gulf of Mexico (-23 tb/d), New Mexico

(-22 tb/d), and North Dakota (-8 tb/d) declined. US total liquid supply, excluding processing gains, decreased

in June by 0.05 mb/d m-o-m to average 14.12 mb/d, which is a growth of 0.60 mb/d for the year to date.

US crude oil production q-o-q increased by 110 tb/d in 2Q17, while it rose by 207 tb/d in 1Q17 from 4Q16.

It is expected that US crude oil production will grow by 0.42 mb/d y-o-y to average 9.28 mb/d, while

US NGLs output is expected to grow by 0.21 mb/d. It is anticipated that US liquid supply in 2017 and 2018

will increase by 0.63 mb/d and 0.84 mb/d to average 14.26 mb/d and 15.09 mb/d, respectively.

Table 5 - 4: US liquids production breakdown

Storms, heavy rains and catastrophic floods caused by Hurricane Harvey have affected Texas and the

Louisiana Gulf Coast which is home to about half of US refining capacity, pipelines and crude oil production

sites. In terms of crude oil production disruption, around 18% of the GoM’s production, the equivalent of

0.32 mb/d of crude oil output was shut down, while the disrupted volume amounted to about 0.40 mb/d at the

beginning of storm. The extent of damages caused to offshore platforms, onshore oil production

infrastructures and sites are unknown yet. At the beginning of September, about 9% of oil production, which

equates to 153 tb/d and 13% of natural gas production remain shut in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the

Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Moreover, 75 production platforms remain inaccessible to

staff, which represents 10.18% of the 737 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. There is no official

estimate of the damages caused by the significant flooding on the wells in the eastern part of the Eagle Ford

play in Texas, although it is purported that at least 0.3 mb/d (around a quarter) of output in Eagle Ford has

been shut down.

Change

Change

Change

2015

2016 2016/15

2017* 2017/16

2018* 2018/17

Tight crude

4,582

4,245

-336

4,745

500

5,365

620

Gulf of Mexico crude

1,515

1,598

83

1,670

72

1,745

75

Conventional crude oil

3,312

3,010

-302

2,855

-155

2,715

-140

Unconventional NGLs

2,347

2,562

215

2,700

138

2,910

210

Conventional NGLs

995

947

-48

1,014

67

1,067

53

Biofuels + Other liquids

1,283

1,268

-15

1,272

4

1,292

20

US total supply

14,034 13,630

-404 14,256

626 15,094

838

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Sources: Energy Information Administration, Rystad Energy and OPEC Secretariat.