World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
OECD liquids production
in 2017 was revised down by 31 tb/d, mainly due to a downward revision in
OECD Americas, which is now expected to increase by 0.64 mb/d to average 25.48 mb/d in 2017. For 2018,
OECD supply is forecast to average 26.46 mb/d, representing a growth of 0.99 mb/d, mainly from
OECD Americas’ oil supply
in 2017 is predicted to average 21.25 mb/d. This represents an increase of
0.65 mb/d y-o-y. The oil supply forecast was revised down by 48 tb/d this month owing to the downward
adjustment of historical data in 2Q17 and the downward revision in 3Q and 4Q forecast for 2017. Oil supply
in the US and Canada will grow while a contraction is expected in Mexico. In 2018, supply in the
OECD Americas is expected to grow by 0.87 mb/d to average 22.12 mb/d. The US and Canadian oil supply
is expected to grow, while a continuation of annual decline in Mexico is anticipated for next year.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), monthly crude oil production averaged
9.10 mb/d in June 2017, representing a decline of 73 tb/d over May, while US NGLs were up by 31 tb/d to
average 3.75 mb/d, mainly from unconventional sources. Oil production increased in Texas (+13 tb/d) and
Oklahoma (+15 tb/d), whereas output in Alaska (-45 tb/d), the Gulf of Mexico (-23 tb/d), New Mexico
(-22 tb/d), and North Dakota (-8 tb/d) declined. US total liquid supply, excluding processing gains, decreased
in June by 0.05 mb/d m-o-m to average 14.12 mb/d, which is a growth of 0.60 mb/d for the year to date.
US crude oil production q-o-q increased by 110 tb/d in 2Q17, while it rose by 207 tb/d in 1Q17 from 4Q16.
It is expected that US crude oil production will grow by 0.42 mb/d y-o-y to average 9.28 mb/d, while
US NGLs output is expected to grow by 0.21 mb/d. It is anticipated that US liquid supply in 2017 and 2018
will increase by 0.63 mb/d and 0.84 mb/d to average 14.26 mb/d and 15.09 mb/d, respectively.
Table 5 - 4: US liquids production breakdown
Storms, heavy rains and catastrophic floods caused by Hurricane Harvey have affected Texas and the
Louisiana Gulf Coast which is home to about half of US refining capacity, pipelines and crude oil production
sites. In terms of crude oil production disruption, around 18% of the GoM’s production, the equivalent of
0.32 mb/d of crude oil output was shut down, while the disrupted volume amounted to about 0.40 mb/d at the
beginning of storm. The extent of damages caused to offshore platforms, onshore oil production
infrastructures and sites are unknown yet. At the beginning of September, about 9% of oil production, which
equates to 153 tb/d and 13% of natural gas production remain shut in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the
Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Moreover, 75 production platforms remain inaccessible to
staff, which represents 10.18% of the 737 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. There is no official
estimate of the damages caused by the significant flooding on the wells in the eastern part of the Eagle Ford
play in Texas, although it is purported that at least 0.3 mb/d (around a quarter) of output in Eagle Ford has
been shut down.
Gulf of Mexico crude
Conventional crude oil
Biofuels + Other liquids
US total supply
Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.
Sources: Energy Information Administration, Rystad Energy and OPEC Secretariat.