Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  55 / 110 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 55 / 110 Next Page
Page Background

World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

47

The quarterly oil supply forecast in 2017 and 2018 (

Graph 5 – 5

and

Table 5 - 2

) indicates a yearly higher oil

output level from 2016-2018, due to higher investment. This leads to higher production and annual growth in

non-OPEC supply in 2017 and the next year. Nevertheless, the forecast for non-OPEC supply in 2018 is

associated with a high level of uncertainty as well as possibility.

Graph 5 - 7: Regional non-OPEC supply growth, y-o-y change

The expected growth in 2017 in all non-OPEC regions except China, Other Asia and the Middle East will

continue next year, led by OECD Americas with 0.87 mb/d, Latin America with 0.11 mb/d, OECD Europe

with 0.08 mb/d, Africa with 0.07 mb/d, the FSU with 0.06 mb/d and OECD Asia Pacific with 0.04 mb/d.

However, declines are anticipated in 2018 in China, the Middle East and Other Asia of 0.17 mb/d, 0.05 mb/d

and 0.04 mb/d, respectively.

Table 5 - 3: Non-OPEC supply forecast comparison in 2017* and 2018*, mb/d

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

OECD

Americas

OECD

Europe

OECD Asia

Pacific

Other Asia Latin

America

Middle East

Africa

FSU China

mb/d

16/15

17/16

18/17

Note: 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change

Change

2017

2017/16

2018

2018/17

OECD Americas

21.25

0.65

22.12

0.87

OECD Europe

3.82

0.01

3.90

0.08

OECD Asia Pacific

0.41

-0.02

0.45

0.04

Total OECD

25.48

0.64

26.46

0.99

Other Asia

3.67

-0.05

3.63

-0.04

Latin America

5.26

0.15

5.37

0.11

Middle East

1.23

-0.05

1.18

-0.05

Africa

1.85

0.04

1.92

0.07

Total DCs

12.00

0.09

12.10

0.10

FSU

14.01

0.15

14.08

0.06

Other Europe

0.13

0.00

0.13

0.00

China

3.98

-0.12

3.81

-0.17

Non-OPEC production

55.59

0.77

56.57

0.98

Processing gains

2.21

0.01

2.23

0.03

Non-OPEC supply

57.80

0.78

58.80

1.00

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Region